Floette ev yield

Why is Micron Technology (MU) rated a Buy with a score of 9.7/10 despite adverse Q2 results ?

2023.03.29 19:18 alphanso_ai Why is Micron Technology (MU) rated a Buy with a score of 9.7/10 despite adverse Q2 results ?

Join our community to get trending stock updates!
submitted by alphanso_ai to Trading [link] [comments]


2023.03.29 19:12 alphanso_ai Why is Micron Technology ($MU) rated a Buy with a score of 9.7/10 despite adverse Q2 results


Join our community to get trending stock updates!
submitted by alphanso_ai to Daytrading [link] [comments]


2023.03.29 19:07 alphanso_ai Why is Micron Technology (MU) rated a Buy with a score of 9.7/10 despite adverse Q2 results


Join our community to get trending stock updates!
submitted by alphanso_ai to StockMarket [link] [comments]


2023.03.29 19:03 alphanso_ai Alphanso is rating Micron Technology (MU) a Buy with a score of 9.7/10 despite adverse Q2 results

Follow us for more stock updates - https://alphanso.ai/
Or download our app to start investing like a Wall Street Pro!
AppStore: https://apps.apple.com/app/alphanso/id1660499841
Google Play Store: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=ai.alphanso.frontend
submitted by alphanso_ai to u/alphanso_ai [link] [comments]


2023.03.28 16:42 Then_Marionberry_259 MAR 28, 2023 CKG.V COULOIR CAPITAL LTD. IS PLEASED TO ANNOUNCE IT HAS UPDATED RESEARCH COVERAGE ON CHESAPEAKE GOLD CORP.

MAR 28, 2023 CKG.V COULOIR CAPITAL LTD. IS PLEASED TO ANNOUNCE IT HAS UPDATED RESEARCH COVERAGE ON CHESAPEAKE GOLD CORP.
https://preview.redd.it/e3ydt2hcshqa1.png?width=3500&format=png&auto=webp&s=88cefd92e708f4a2ef97b6e01f019d647659d341
Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - March 28, 2023) - Couloir Capital Ltd. is pleased to announce it has updated research coverage on Chesapeake Gold Corp. (TSXV: CKG) (OTCQX: CHPGF). The new report is titled, "Resource Update Yields Higher Grades, Metallurgical Testwork Provides Proof of Concept "
Report excerpt: "The updated resource estimate coming off the improved resource grading follows CKG having earlier announced in 2022 that drilling results from a 23-drill-hole campaign (covering approximately 7,485 meters) had returned assay grades that averaged significantly above internal block model inputs used in previous resource estimation for Metates. As covered in our previous update, the 2022 assays averaged 23% higher than CKG's block model, which was built on 2021 drilling where assay grades averaged over 18% higher than suggested block model grades. Given the turnaround on cycling assay results into an updated resource, we believe the company has built its credibility to communicate and forecast potential resource upgrades to the market, which can be important in telegraphing catalysts.
The update to Metates' resource estimate is significant given the change in the mineral asset base represented by estimated gold-equivalent ounces in the ground. As covered in our valuation section, the EV/ net resource metric is a significant contributor to our estimation of CKG's intrinsic valuation, and has been throughout Couloir Capital's coverage of the company. As a result, absolute increases or decreases in the net resource of CKG should have a material impact on our valuation of the company (before accounting for movement in peer multiples and its impact on CKG's relative value). Though the absolute size of Metates' net resource has decreased, based on our discussions with management, the grade improvement on the overall resource is expected to result in better project unit economics (relative to Metates' PEA projections). Whilst we were unable to verify this, if true, the resource update could offset the net resource decrease with valuation leverage on the future PFS NPV for the project. This would arise if the net free cash flow from production estimated in a future PFS was projected to increase relative to the PEA based on lower unit costs. However, this requires confirmation from the future Metates PFS."
The report can be accessed through Couloir Capital's portal: https://www.couloircapital.com/research-portal
About Couloir Capital Ltd.
Couloir Capital Ltd. is an investment research firm comprised of a team of veteran investment professionals dedicated to providing opportunities in the natural resource exploration and development sectors. Couloir Capital Ltd. is affiliated with a registered securities dealer, Couloir Securities Ltd.
For further information, please contact:
Rob Stitt, Managing Director, Couloir Capital Ltd.
Email: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
www.couloircapital.com
Analyst Disclosure:
  1. The analyst and/or affiliated companies do not hold shares or warrants in Chesapeake Gold.
  2. Couloir Capital Ltd. has been retained under a service agreement by Chesapeake Gold. This service agreement includes analyst research coverage.
To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/160123

https://preview.redd.it/1ctljakcshqa1.png?width=4000&format=png&auto=webp&s=ad245d139dbdc8240bf27d767486f85e1be69b18
Universal Site Links
CHESAPEAKE GOLD CORP.
STOCK METAL DATABASE
ADD TICKER TO THE DATABASE
www.reddit.com/Treaty_Creek
REPORT AN ERROR
submitted by Then_Marionberry_259 to Treaty_Creek [link] [comments]


2023.03.28 14:05 upbstock prepprrrrrrrrrrrr 🔮🔮🔮🎰🎰🕹🕹🕹🎮🎮🎮🥊🥊🥊

Israel has been rocked by weekly protests since a series of judicial reforms were unveiled in January, but the situation came to a head on Monday, as coalition divisions became apparent and the nation's largest labor union threatened to shut down the country. Flights were grounded at Ben Gurion International Airport, ports, banks and schools began to close, while a strike by the medical association left hospitals with skeleton crews. Earlier, military reservists from key units had refused to serve, triggering national security threats, and while Israel's defense minister flagged the concerns, he was fired for calling for a pause to the legislation.
Quote: "When it is possible to prevent a civil war through dialogue, I, as the prime minister, will take the time for dialogue," Bibi Netanyahu said in a televised address from Jerusalem. "Out of national responsibility, and to prevent a rift in the nation, I decided to postpone the legislative process in order to reach a wider agreement and broad consensus. In one way or another, we are going to bring a reform that will restore the balance of power."
The crisis has unnerved investors, with fluctuations in the country's currency, the shekel, but it's now back to where it started the year (check out currency and other market data on Seeking Alpha). One of the big worries is that the reforms could hinder Israel's ability to attract capital inflows and maintain investment, making waves in the country's tech sector, which is responsible for over half of its total exports. Credit rating agencies have also flagged longer-term risks associated with the weakening of institutions that could hurt the broader economy.
Big players in the Israeli tech scene include Amdocs (DOX), Check Point (CHKP), Elbit Systems (ESLT), Fiverr (FVRR), NICE (NICE), Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) and Wix.com (WIX), while tech funds include the ARK Israel Innovative Technology ETF (IZRL) and the BlueStar Israel Technology ETF (ITEQ).
What are the reforms about? Both sides maintain that they are defending the soul of Israel's democracy, but disagree on the appropriate balance of power between the branches of government. Arguments center around the process of appointing judges, jurisdiction of the Supreme Court, as well as standing and override mechanisms. Complicating the situation is that Israel does not have a written constitution, but rather a series of basic laws, meaning policy and value judgments play an outsized role, while there are also fewer checks on executive and legislative functions, with no second chamber or the concept of a presidential veto. (7 comments)
Binance up next
The ongoing regulatory crackdown in the crypto industry is continuing, with the latest target being the biggest cryptocurrency exchange - Binance. The exchange, along with its co-founder and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, was sued by the CFTC on allegations that it violated certain trading and derivatives rules. It alleged that Binance solicited U.S. users via unregistered crypto derivatives offerings, and directed its employees and customers to hide their true location by using VPNs to evade compliance controls. Other crypto exchanges were also hit by the news. On Monday, Coinbase (COIN) and Bakkt (BKKT) closed down 8% and 5%, respectively, and are sliding again in the premarket session. (9 comments)
Critical minerals
Big investments in electric cars will require big purchases of critical minerals, with batteries making up anywhere from 25% to 50% of an EV's cost. That means it's even more crucial to secure supplies of lithium, cobalt, manganese, nickel and graphite, especially as the Biden administration pursues a goal of phasing out the internal combustion engine with the climate-focused Inflation Reduction Act. A new deal announced in Washington is looking to change that, while negotiations are underway for a similar trade agreement. Also see Lithium Miners News For The Month Of March 2023 by SA Investing Group author Trend Investing. (9 comments)
Most shorted stocks
As Wall Street approaches the end of the first quarter, the major U.S. equity averages are trading higher for 2023 so far, despite the turmoil caused by the bank crisis. Still, many traders have made large bets against a handful of well-known names, including Silvergate Capital (SI), which has already lost nearly 90% of its value since the close of last year. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) and WeWork (WE) also made the list of the top 10 stocks with the current highest short interest stakes on Wall Street (here is the full list). (13 comments)
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan +0.2%. Hong Kong +1.1%. China -0.2%. India -0.1%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.2%. Paris +0.3%. Frankfurt +0.2%. Futures at 6:30, Dow +0.1%. S&P flat. Nasdaq flat. Crude +0.5% to $73.13. Gold +0.2% to $1957.30. Bitcoin -3.6% to $26,931. Ten-year Treasury Yield +4 bps to 3.57%
Today's Economic Calendar
8:30 International Trade in Goods (Advance) 8:30 Retail Inventories (Advance) 8:30 Wholesale Inventories (Advance) 9:00 Case-Shiller Home Price Index 9:00 FHFA House Price Index 10:00 Consumer Confidence 10:00 Fed’s Barr Testify on Bank Oversight 10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg. 1:00 PM Results of $43B, 5-Year Note Auction 1:00 PM Money Supply
Companies reporting earnings today »
What else is happening...
WSB survey results: More subscribers than not see financial system in order.
First Republic (FRC) rallies on rebound from bank turmoil slump.
First Citizens (FCNCA) ends Monday up 50% after SVB (SIVB) purchase.
Biden renews call for assault-weapons ban after Nashville school shooting.
Activist Elliott will not nominate directors for Salesforce (CRM) board.
Berkshire (BRK.B) hikes Occidental (OXY) stake after new purchases.
Lyft (LYFT) picks board member David Risher to be new CEO.
Disney (DIS) launches first of three job-cutting rounds this week.
Alphabet (GOOGL) pushes for dismissal of DOJ antitrust suit over ad tech.
Alibaba (BABA) to break into six units which may pursue individual IPOs.
submitted by upbstock to Optionmillionaires [link] [comments]


2023.03.28 07:14 Proud_Western_5146 Strange stats led down a rabbit hole

Strange stats led down a rabbit hole submitted by Proud_Western_5146 to MandJTV [link] [comments]


2023.03.28 05:50 Hanzoisbad Singapore Airlines(C6L) DCF Analysis. Need advice and criticisms.

Introduction:

Singapore Airlines is a widely well known airline service. Offering both full service carriers (SIA) and low cost carrier(Scoot) both of which the parent company wholly owns.

Revenue:

SIA FY21/22 Revenue Y/Y Growth stood at 99.55% mainly because 2020's revenue was very weak and huge steps towards lifting of covid restrictions were made in 2021.
The airline industry is expected to be growing at slightly more than the RFR at a CAGR of 3.1% (SOURCE)
I forecast that revenue will continue making leaps towards recovery, recovering back to 2019's level by end 2024. (SOURCE)
Revenue's Y/Y growth likely to start tapering down at a fast rate, by 2027 Y/Y growth reduced to 10% from 2022's 30%. And by 2033 growing at 3%

Margins:

As of FY21/22 financial report, the top 5 cost accounting for 81% of overall cost faced by SIA, fuel accounted for 32.7% of this. The problem is further exacerbated as fuel prices are elevated due to the Ukraine War. In the best case scenario when aviation industry normalizes by 2024, the price of fuel will do the same. Allowing margins to return to the normalcy.
To improve margins, airlines have to innovate in the form of electronic planes, even more digitalization or more efficient management.
However, elaborating on the electronic planes they may be a distant pipe dream. “hybrid electric 50- to 70-seater planes could be in service within a decade.” (SOURCE) “In order for electric planes to play a more significant role in decarbonizing air travel...could require novel types of batteries to reach commercialization.” (SOURCE)
But, I'm hopeful as cars undergo decarbonization, the next biggest elephant in the room is aviation. Decarbonization for cars is complete by 2030 in most countries so I'm hoping that with more attention given to airplanes by then their margins is able to improve as fuel costs are better managed.
Optimistically, I forecast that margins will return to normalcy i.e. 2016 and 2017 level by 2025 and improve towards 6.5% in 2029. By 2030 margins improve to 7% and 2034 margins improve to 8% before plateauing.

Taxes:

I assume that NOL will carry forward for 3 years, before being taxed at the Singapore corporate marginal tax rate.
I forecast that, taxes will be -26% similar to 2021 with NOL carried forward for 3 years. Tax rates will be 17% from 2026 onwards.

Assumptions:

  1. D&A, nominal D&A will be back up to 2019 level by 2024. Before plateauing back down to 11% wrt revenue slightly above the normal levels wrt revenue in 2016-2018.
  2. NWC, NWC wrt revenue was abnormally high for 2021 and 2022 due to “Increase/(Decrease) in trade and other creditors” and “Increase/(Decrease) in sales in advance of carriage” So I forecast that till normalcy at end 2024, normalizing back to the average of 2016 till 2019. As NWC fluctuates positive and negative for different years, I've taken the average 2016 till 2019 and forecasted NWC at 0.33% from 2026 onwards.
  3. CapEX, nominal CapEX will be back up to 2018-2019 level in 2024 and remain elevated as the company researches on electronic planes and increases its services before tapering down to 12%.

WACC:

RFR is taking Singapore's 10Y bond yield at about average 3.1% using last 3 months of data (SOURCE) ERP taken at 6.66% using last 3 months of data (SOURCE) Beta is taking Damodaran's Industry average of 1.42 (SOURCE) COE = 12.56% Share price taking last 6 month average at $5.595 per share. Shares outstanding is at 2977.54M as of 21/22 financial statement Equity Value at 16659.34M
Inclusive of my lease as liability. My total liability is 15694.80M COD = RFR + YTM = 7.53% (SOURCE) Tax Rate = 17%
%EQ = 51.5%
WACC = 9.50%

DILUTIVE EFFECT:

I'm unable to actually place a value on SIA due to their first 5 years of forecast burning a large amount of cash, their negative UFCF was far too large, which lead to a negative EV.
So, I removed those negative cash flows and only considered the positive cash flows, in turn to finance these negative cash flows I looked at 2020 and 2021 methodology of equity financing (Sale of Mandatory convertible bonds, all assumed to be equity). 2020 (6196.8M raised divided by average share price in 2020) = 1164.81M shares issued 2021 (8829.2M raised divided by average share price in 2021) = 1907.04M shares issued
I took the average and assumed that the next 5 years of negative cash flow is covered by an increase in shares outstanding by HALF the average of the two numbers in 2020 and 2021. Reason being: When lockdown first hit SIA, the CEO raised 15B which he said might be a little excessive. So, we can't assume that they need another 15B for the next 5 years of forecast. the CEO also mentioned they were burning cash at 300M-400M/month, In a year about 1.2B, so in 5 years about 6B. So 6B is covered by about 767.96M shares issued.
So, my total shares outstanding went from 2997.54M to 3745.5M

Conclusion:

Ultimately, the survival of the airline industry as a whole is dependent on them figuring out how to improve margins and not get wiped out by the next market wide event like covid. The airline industry is in a unique spot where the services they provide is unique, no other services allows you to quickly get from one country to another within the span of a day or less. But airlines are also homogenous from each other so there isn't a clear winner and everyone operates on normal profits. So, I really can't see a future where margins are able to significantly improve or demand is able to skyrocket improving revenue. SIA is unlikely to get wiped out by the next event, as it has strong history of government backing. And it being the pride of Singapore. SIA is overpriced based on projected cash flows, price calculated for SIA is $0.45
Picture of my EXCEL: https://imgur.com/a/kFI8sVC
submitted by Hanzoisbad to stocks [link] [comments]


2023.03.27 18:24 polterguised ‘23 Kona Limited lease

Hi everyone! I was hoping for some feedback on a lease. I’m looking to find out if this lease makes sense for a 2023 Kona EV Limited (MSRP $41,550) in SoCal: $6k down and $510 per month, for 36 months and 10k miles a year. Same dealer quoted me an SE model at $345 a month for $6k down, but I prefer the Limited. Any feedback appreciated!
Edit: The MSRP is $41,550 and the total price is $43,335 (includes $1335 freight & handling and $450 for the lunar white paint). According to Edmunds lease calculator, $6k down should yield $424 monthly payments. According to leasehackr, $6k down should yield $452.
Edit: I’m working with another broker now who’s quoting me $4k down, $3k for my trade in, $425 monthly payments. This seems more in line with the results I’m getting on the Leasehackr and Edmunds calculators.
submitted by polterguised to KonaEV [link] [comments]


2023.03.27 16:43 JesperJacobsen What I learned writing, recording, mixing and mastering an album by myself at home: Part One

As the title suggest, I wrote, recorded, mixed and mastered an entire album in my basement studio.
I figured it might be helpful, or at least mildly entertaining, for some of you to learn from my mistakes and experiences.
I'll divide the proces into three parts that will be posted seperately as I have time to write them:
  1. Writing and Recording
  2. Mixing and Mastering
  3. Summary

I'll give you a little bit of background information before we get stuck in. I'll also leave a TLDR and a link to the album at the end of the post for reference.
Firstly, English is not my native language, so I apologize for any errors in terms of words and grammar in advance. I hope I'll be able to make myself clear and if not you can always ask me to clarify.
Secondly, the album was principally written and recorded during the lockdowns in my country. Essentially, I was sent home from work for extended periods (months!) with full pay because remote work wasn't an option. In other words I had time and money available. I have a wife and two children, so the time available was mostly at night, but I didn't have to get up particularly early the next day.
The room itself recieved upgrades during the recording proces in terms of acoustic treatment, as did instruments, mics, pre-amps and compressors. Some pieces of gear were part of the entire proces.
Third thing: The release of the album, as an album, was not part of the plan. It was an idea that came late because I was unable to stop re-opening the projects and tweaking. The release is merely a means to close the chapter and move on to other songs and projects. Had it been the plan from the start, I likely would have done things differently and certainly would have gone back to re-record several things. "Fix it in the mix" is a real pain for a number of reasons, but we'll get to that. The final sequencing of songs on the album does not reflect the order in which I recorded the songs.

Part 1: Writing and Recording


Writing the songs:
With the pandemic and subsequent lockdowns came a great deal of misery for a lot of people. Apart from the virus itself a lot of people were worried about their future, their jobs, their mental health and much, much more. It was a strange time. As I didn't have to work and still got paid I ended up staying up into the early hours pretty much everyday. Those early hours were spent in my studio in the basement and I ended up writing a bunch of songs as well as re-visiting some old songs I wrote ages ago.
The one thing that strikes me when looking back is how introspective all the songs ended up being, even when I tried to avoid it. I really tried to work with dynamics as I was working, but writing parts for one instrument at a time and not being able to capitalize on the interplay between two or more instruments playing off of each other in the room really yielded a certain mood, regardless of arrangement and instrumentation. Maybe it's only clear to me looking back, maybe you hear it too.
I found lyrics difficult. Obviously, during late hours in a basement, in the midst of a pandemic that we had no idea when would end, the mind tends to gravitate towards heavier subjects and I found myself writing songs that were far more depressing than I actually felt at the time. But I guess, it was just a consequence of being in that space at that time. I managed to salvage it along the way, but it did end up being a much more introspective and self-centric record than I initially intended.

In terms of songwriting as a craft, I feel like I improved along the way. There are a great number of ressources available and YouTube in particular proved useful. I'd also recommend a few (audio)books such as "Try This at Home" by Frank Turner, "How to Write One Song" by Jeff Tweedy, "How Music Works" by David Byrne. I was very inspired by "Our Band Could Be Your Life" by Michael Azerrad in terms of the whole DIY-and-don't-worry-what-others-think approach. I really can't recommend that book enough for people interested in bands outside of the mainstream and how they broke through to an audience eventually.

The absolutely most important lesson in terms of songwriting was with regards to arrangement: It is absolutely underrated. The planning of which instruments to play when is crucial. It might sound simple, and it probably is, but the temptation to just let every instrument play all through a song is very real, so I think its worth mentioning. Build a basic foundation and work from there. Not every instrument is essential all the time. In fact, few are.

One of the first things I did after lockdown was implemented was order an electronic drum kit. It was fun and it improved my chops, but I ultimately donated it to a kid who's entire year of music school had been cancelled. I then ordered a "real" drum kit as well as a cheap P-bass knock-off. It was upgraded to a slightly less cheap P-bass knock-off along the way.
In terms of guitars and amps I had my acoustic guitars and three electrics; a jazzmaster, a tele and a 335-ish Höfner. Amps were mostly my Vox AC10, Orange Micro Dark and a Fender Mustang (digital modeller). In addition I used Studio One's Ampire quite a bit. Somewhere around half-way through I bought an Orange Rocker 32 which ended up providing the bulk of my guitar sounds from there.
Pedals were mostly the usual suspects: Tubescreamer (mini), Proco RAT, Big Muff, Oceans 11, TC Stereo Chorus/Flanger and a Boss Space Echo pedal (the old one). Weehbos Dumbledore is also quite extensively used.
I have a couple of midi-keyboards as well that were usually used with Arturias Analog Lab.

From a technical standpoint the proces was almost always to first record a guidetrack on guitar (to a click for 8 out of 10 songs) and then either hum a melody on top of it or proceed to build a foundation of drums and bass.
Thus, the first "real" track, meaning one I actually intended to keep in, were usually drums.

Drum tracking
The drums consisted of kick, snare, two rack toms and a floor tom. In addition were hi-hats, a crash and a ride. My newly aquired kit came with some dirt cheap and fairly terrible cymbals. I replaced the hats and the crash shortly after the kit arrived. I have just ordered a new ride cymbal, but I should have done that immediately.
The kick was recorded with a D112 just inside the whole for the attack of the beater and an Aston Origin on the outside to capture the tone of the drum. Quite pleased with them both seperately and in combination.

The snare was usually mic'ed with an SM57 on top, with an AKG P120 (dirt cheap LDC) occasionally taking it's place. I much prefer the sound of the latter, especially when I eventually replaced the snare with a Soundworks Kapur snare from Tama, which is very dark and woody. The added detail from the large diapraghm condenser was very welcome. Other mics occasionally tried were the EV ND44 and Shure PGA181. Both outperformed the SM57, but they were too late to the party to be included on more than two songs. I occasionally miced the bottom of the snare with a no-name dirt cheap pencil condenser someone once gave me - a T-bone something-or-other.

For toms I used TG D35s from Beyerdynamic on the rack toms and a 70's AKG MD421 on the floor tom.
For overheads I alternated between Rode NT5's in an ORTF configuration or a Glyn Johns setup using Warm Audio WA-251's.
The latter didn't work out well, so let's dwell on that: Glyn Johns provides a great roomy sound under normal circumstances. If you want big, full Bonham-esque sounds I'd consider it every time. The problems in this case were two-fold: First, my room is fairly dead, thus roomy sounds didn't really sound that roomy, just distant or even slightly muddy. Secondly, it's a small kit; it's only a 20 inch kick drum. The kit was situated at the "far end" of a rectangular room and the walls behind and on either side of the kit was treated with absorbing panels, so room reflections couldn't really be picked up there. There are acoustic panels on the ceiling above the kit as well.
I found using the SDCs from Rode as overheads in conjunction with a couple of room mics worked much better, as I could put some more distance between the kit and the mics to at least pick up some reflections.
Which brings us to room mics; usually I had a Warm Audio WA-87 about 3-5 feet in front of the kit and the WA-251s placed in the very opposite end of the room, either spaced out in each corner or centered in a M/S configuration. I really liked the M/S-thing for room mics and I'll definitely be doing more of that in the future.
In terms of pre-amps, usually I'd use Focusrite ISA for rooms, a Golden Age pre-73 MKII for the front-of-kit and my 8 clarett pre's for the close mics and overheads. I didn't apply any compression or EQ going in.

In terms of performance, this was by far the hardest to nail and there are plenty of errors to be found on the record, despite my best efforts. I am not a drummer. I am however happy to say that I did my best and became much better over the course of the proces.

Percussion was often mere a tambourine or a shaker, but boy to these small and often forgotten instruments make a huge difference for an arrangement! Second verse lacking energy coming out of a big chorus? Play 8ths on a shaker! I usually tracked them through the WA87.

Bass Tracking
For bass I used a dirt cheap Harley Benton P-bass going straight into the instrument input of the ISA. I rolled the tone back a bit to get rid of hum, but other than that it was plug and play. Along the way I bought a Fender Downtown Express bass pre and ran that in parallel through a seperate DI-box. I'd also use Ampire's excellent Ampeg-model and run it out through a cab to track it back in with an MD421 in conjunction with the D112. Check phase! Fix phase! That left me with four bass tracks: DI, Fender Pre, "Ampeg" recorded through the 421 and "Ampeg" recorded through the D112. I was very convinced by quality of the bass sounds along the way to be honest. I'd normally add slight compression with the Golden Age Comp-3A or Comp-2A going in. I cannot recommend those two units enough!

Guitar Tracking:
Most of the time, I only used two mics when tracking electric guitars. Thus I always used my ISA's, occasionally adding either the Pre-73 or a Clarett as needed. Typically I used a dynamic and a ribbon in conjunction with each other, but I also used my WA-87 for a few parts. Initially I used an SM57 on center with a SE Electronics VR1 ribbon mic off-center. I quickly swapped the SM57 for an MD421 and I much preferred that combination.
Depending on how much top end I needed I would use the WA-87 instead of the ribbon. There was an important lesson for me here: Think about the role the part you are recording plays to the overall sonic landscape you are trying to create. Let your choices be guided by that. It's not easy, but it is worthwhile to try and anticipate the finished song. Arrangement plays a big part here as well. If you've got big low-mid heavy powerchords going for a chorus, maybe the overdub should be with brighter mics or at least with mics placed differently to give more mids and high-mids. Furthermore, you can remove something that's there but unwanted, however it is impossible to add something that isn't there to begin with. Getting things right at the source greatly improves the mixing proces as I'll get to in a later post.

Also, when doubling, switch guitars or at the very least pickup positions. If you can, switch amps as well. The sum of all these small changes make an immense difference to the final product and how happy you'll feel about it. Above all however: Performance. There is just no substitute for a good performance. In a pinch, I'd take a good performance poorly recorded over a well-recorded poor performance any day. Goes for any instrument I can think of, really. Looking back, I should have kept true to this throughout the proces.

In terms of acoustic guitars, most of the work was done on an affordable Fender mahogany guitar and a late 60's hummingbird knock-off from Santana. My usual chain was WA-251 pointed at the 12th fret, going throug the Golden Age Comp-3A knocking of 2-3 dB. I tried to make a habit of sitting in the middle of the room, but convinience often got the better of me and I'd end up just tracking in my chair at the desk.
The WA87 also saw action here. It get's knocked on a lot for not sounding enough like a U87, but having owned (and subsequently sold) an actual U87(AI) because I found it brittle and harsh I can say without a doubt that this is my favorite mic with an '87' in the name. It's a first edition however. Haven't heard the second version Warm Audio made.

Keys/Synth/String tracking:
It's all midi going in via USB, so nothing to report in terms of tracking. Arrangement wise I will say that using common tones between chords when going between parts in a song makes a massive difference for the sense of cohesion in a song. I'd occasionally run a "Rhodes" out through a guitar amp for some grit and record it back in with the MD421, but by and large it stayed in the box.

Vocal tracking:
This was by far the hardest thing to do confidently. I don't like the sound of my voice, I don't consider myself a particularly good singer and I had doubts about the lyrics, often having finalized them seconds before trying to record. None of this is condusive to good performances.
My vocal chain was the WA-251 into the Golden Age Comp-2A or 3A into the ISA pre-amp. Technically there isn't much to report, but two major things I leared: Always use a pop filter; you'll hate having a good performance ruined by plosives that are too overwhelming to fix in post. There is no risk associated with using a pop filter and major risks associated with not. Just buy one and use it. All the time. Second thing: Compressing on the way in (5-7 dB at the loudest sections) makes the performance seem much stronger and more confident. Also, always monitor with a "comfort verb". It adds confidence during tracking and that adds to the performance quality.
Also: PRACTICE THE MELODY AND LYRICS! The best performances are the ones I've rehearsed the most, plain and simply. It is much easier to put in a convincing performance if you know what you're doing! It seems obvious, but the temptation to get vocals in the bag so you can move on is very real. Resist! Practice and put in a performance you'll be happy with when you hear the finished song. I wish I had done better in this department.

All in all and TLDR:

Garbage in = Garbage out: Get things right at the source! If it sounds bad in the room, it will likely sound bad in the recording. Don't reach for an EQ in your DAW, instead reach for the microphone and adjust its placement. Maybe it's the EQ on the amp you need to reach for, but try to fix it at that end of the signal chain and not in the computer. You can make a bad sounding ride cymbal sound OK in the mix, but it will never sound good. A crappy sounding cymbal recorded and mixed well will give you an extremely accurate representation of a crappy sounding cymbal; that's literally the best you can achieve.

Consider the arrangement: Consider the role each instrument or part plays to the overall sonic landscape. Not all instruments are equal in importance throughout a song and taking this into consideration when deciding what to play and how it should be recorded will vastly improve the overall output. A shaker or a tambourine will liven things up and can be used to capture the listeners attention: very underrated!

Your room is important: Glyn Johns didn't work out for my drums due to the acoustic properties of the room I was working in. I probably could have moved the drums to the center of the room and used the technique to better results, but ultimately I found something I feel worked better. Likewise, I was too lazy to always sit in the center of the room to track acoustic guitars. It worked out alright in context to not do it (acc. guitars were largely in the mix as a percussive instrument basically), but had it been a more prominemt instrument in a song it would have been worthwhile to do it. Likewise moving the drums. Play to your rooms strengths and try to make as few compromises on the sound in the room as possible.

Performance is key: There is no technical substitute for a good performance. There are a lot of things that can be achieved in a DAW and there are a lot of pieces of gear that can help you achieve wonderful sonic results, but at the end of the day you are recording a performance. I often opted out of re-tracking parts that probably should have been - the things I couldn't fix in the mix still bothers me to this day when listening to the record and the things I did manage to fix took me ages and where often not entirely to my satisfaction anyway. I guess it ties into point number one: get it right at the source!

Thanks for sticking with me to the end - if you did. I hope you can take something from this.
Some of it is probably banal to many of you, but I can honestly say that although I knew most of this stuff when I started this project I greatly underestimated the impact the sum of all these things would have on the final album. Not getting things right in the room will play a major part in the mixing stage, which I will discuss in part two of this.
The album can be found here, if you are interested (And if it's alright to post).
https://open.spotify.com/album/6lPDd9pYFIGeGrMLa4KdtE?si=uWRga4alRSayt841KJo-3w
submitted by JesperJacobsen to audioengineering [link] [comments]


2023.03.27 14:45 upbstock prepper

First Citizens Bank (NASDAQ:FCNCA) has agreed to buy Silicon Valley Bank's (NASDAQ:SIVB) deposits and loans, confirming an earlier report that surfaced on Sunday night. The purchase of $72B in assets will come with a 23% discount of $16.5B, while approximately $90B in securities and other assets will remain in receivership for disposition by the FDIC. Equity appreciation rights in First Citizens BancShares common stock - with a potential value of up to $500M - will also be received by the FDIC, which entered into a "loss-share transaction" with the lender to absorb commercial loan losses and minimize disruptions to the sector. In premarket trade, FCNCA is up 22% to $714/share.
Press release: "The 17 former branches of Silicon Valley Bridge Bank, National Association, will open as First–Citizens Bank & Trust Company on Monday, March 27, 2023. Customers of Silicon Valley Bridge Bank, National Association, should continue to use their current branch until they receive notice from First–Citizens Bank & Trust Company that systems conversions have been completed to allow full-service banking at all of its other branch locations. The FDIC estimates the cost of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank to its Deposit Insurance Fund to be approximately $20B... The exact cost will be determined when the FDIC terminates the receivership."
The deal marks the latest chapter of the current global banking crisis, which began on March 10, when SVB became the biggest U.S. bank failure since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Shortly thereafter, Signature Bank (SBNY) failed, Credit Suisse (CS) was rescued by UBS (UBS), and things are looking rocky for First Republic (FRC) and possibly Deutsche Bank (DB), as investors and analysts alike assess if something deeper is brewing. Bond traders have radically shifted expectations for monetary policy, deposits have been drained from smaller banks and transferred to big institutions, while policymakers from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to Fed Chair Jerome Powell have sought to assure the public about the resilience of the U.S. financial system.
SA commentary: "The actual market and/or counterparty risks are very limited and strictly managed... however, loss of confidence may trigger a self-fulfilling prophecy," wrote IP Banking Research with regards to Deutsche Bank, though the sentiment could apply to large swathes of the banking system. CashFlow Hunter is also back with his latest picks on where to pick up value amid the global banking crisis. The Seeking Alpha contributor correctly predicted big problems for Silicon Valley Bank parent SVB Financial Group (SIVB) three months before the firm collapsed in an article that stunned the financial world. (21 comments)
Is it contained?
Will the recent spate of bank failures spiral into a financial crisis?
· Yes (just the tip of the iceberg) · No (things are now under control)
Take the survey and see the results here
'Symbiotic' relationship
A weekend visit to China by Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) CEO Tim Cook is sparking some investor discussion, especially following his comments at the high-profile China Development Forum. "Apple and China... grew together and so this has been a symbiotic kind of relationship that we have both enjoyed. I am thrilled to be back in China. It means the world to me and I feel really privileged to be here." Only several days ago, TikTok was grilled over its relationship with China, while Apple has been reportedly looking to diversify its assembly operations, with an estimated 95% of total iPhone supply still coming from the country. Hardware tech may also be a reason for Warren Buffett to love Apple, but one analyst dives deeper into another answer to why AAPL is Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.B) largest position by far despite historically eschewing technology stocks. (10 comments)
Nukes in Belarus
Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced his intention to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, comparing the plans to the storage of U.S. warheads in bases across Europe. Construction of a storage facility in Belarus will be completed by July, expanding Russia's strike ability along NATO's eastern border that includes Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. "U.S. officials are aware of the reported Russian announcement and will monitor the implications," said Adrienne Watson, spokesperson for the National Security Council. "We remain committed to the collective defense of the NATO alliance." On Friday, Chicago wheat futures surged on short covering as well as market talk that Russia could halt exports following a sharp drop in global prices in recent weeks.
AI and your job
How will advanced chatbots impact the U.S. workforce? Pretty significantly, according to researchers from the University of Pennsylvania and OpenAI, the group behind the creation of ChatGPT. "Our findings reveal that around 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs (large language models), while approximately 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted." The projections span all wage levels, with higher-income jobs potentially facing greater exposure to LLM capabilities and LLM-powered software (check out some of the most exposed professions here). Microsoft-backed (MSFT) OpenAI recently added support for ChatGPT plugins, including ones for Expedia (EXPE), Kayak.com (BKNG), Slack (CRM) and Shopify (SHOP).
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan +0.3%. Hong Kong -1.8%. China -0.4%. India +0.2%. In Europe, at midday, London +1%. Paris +1.2%. Frankfurt +1.5%. Futures at 6:30, Dow +0.6%. S&P +0.6%. Nasdaq +0.3%. Crude +1.1% to $69.99. Gold -1.6% to $1951.20. Bitcoin +0.8% to $27,932. Ten-year Treasury Yield +9 bps to 3.47%
Today's Economic Calendar
10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey 1:00 PM Results of $42B, 2-Year Note Auction 5:00 PM Fed's Jefferson Speech
Companies reporting earnings today »
What else is happening...
Bank stresses bring economy closer to recession - Fed's Kashkari.
Aurora Cannabis (ACB) receives non-compliance notice from Nasdaq.
Twitter's valuation down to $20B, while source code is leaked online.
Do gasoline stock lows signal a return to high U.S. pump prices?
WWE (WWE) receives millions from McMahon for investigation costs.
Outer Banks, Murdaugh Murders lead Netflix (NFLX) to top streaming ratings.
Ethereum (ETH-USD) is at risk of losing its dominant status in DeFi.
Microsoft's (MSFT) chances of closing Activision (ATVI) deal raised at Citi.
EV buyers may be pulling back, but Tesla (TSLA) is still running hot.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) takes aim at SpaceX with Neutron launch plans.
submitted by upbstock to Optionmillionaires [link] [comments]


2023.03.25 03:22 BadTakeBrian Enterprise Group ($E.TO, $ETOLF.OTC): Cash Flow Machine, Deep Value, Squeeze Potential

Enterprise Group ($E.TO, $ETOLF.OTC): Cash Flow Machine, Deep Value, Squeeze Potential
Intro
I should start by saying that the search for a company like Enterprise began under the following pretense: I have a bearish view of where I think broad markets are going by the end of 2023 and wanted somewhere to hide out while still maintaining the potential to double my investment under any broad market scenario.
Enterprise Group fits that bill. The Company is a niche energy service company that provides site infrastructure services to remote western Canadian production sites for pipelines, construction and oil and gas sectors in western Canada. I believe Enterprise is a fantastic and deeply overlooked company fit for retail investors (like me) who have the ability to enter a position ahead of institutions catching hold of the name.
The core thesis on Enterprise is:
- Low correlation to broad markets
- High growth and 30% cash flow yield
- Healthy balance sheet providing ~$20M in dry powder for potential non-dilutive M&A
- Share buyback in place to support stock
- Unique low-emission fleet of equipment to grow market share
- Structural market expansion

History
Enterprise was founded in 2004, though as it stands today, is a much leaner and higher growth business compared to what it was in the last bull market for energy in 2008-2014. Where many competitors went out of business during the bear market between 2014-2021, Enterprise wisely divested from lower margin business units, preserved its balance sheet and due to its unique fleet of equipment – was able to maintain cash flow positive during this time. M&A is part of the corporate DNA of Enterprise and has had a successful track record on that front.
While others were still reeling from previous years downturn or still trying to repair their balance sheets in 2020/2021, Enterprise was able to utilize the strength of its balance sheet and positive cash flows to countercyclically invest into new business units to position themselves for the eventual return of energy markets we are now experiencing. A great example of this is the launch of Evolution Power in 2022, which offers a fleet of low-emission microgrids that power the entire production site with natural gas, replacing diesel generators. In doing so, EP reduces CO2 emissions by 30%, gives Enterprise higher margins, is safer and more efficient for the customer. As one of the few “green options” in the energy sector, they are becoming the first choice for larger oil and gas clients subject to Canada’s “heavy emitter” penalties.

Market
The large majority of Enterprise’s sales are derived from western Canadian energy producers, with a greater share of natural gas producers compared to oil producers within its book of clients. Though Enterprise profits have less commodity risk than their actual producing clients, the Company nevertheless is derivatively exposed to energy prices (though I believe there are some factors that reduce the correlation that I will get into later). After years of producers not investing into large exploration projects due to ESG mandates, regulations and low prices, the outlook on energy markets looks extremely promising for producers and has already begun to see a notable uptick in production levels that are expected to continue for a market that looks undersupplied in years ahead.
More specifically to Enterprise’s western Canadian market, there are some very visible demand drivers on the horizon based on new pipeline capacity that provide a near certain increase in demand for services like Enterprise. This demand is structured within tens of billions of dollars of sunk infrastructure capital to provide a roadmap of oil and gas (mostly gas) production expansion in western Canada. Beginning in 2023 with the completion of NGTL network expansion (gas) and TMX pipeline (oil), there will continue to be major new export capacity to come online nearly every year this decade, with recent first nations LNG projects advancing on the west coast.
For Canadian gas producers, the pipelines will allow them to access higher priced Asian markets, where prices are often multiples of those received in Canada or the US. You can bet there is going to be prompt increases to production to ship whatever they can to those markets, given the preferred economics.

Financials
Enterprise just recently released their full year 2022 financials March 20, 2023, where they posted fantastic results. Rather than do a deep dive into financials today, will simply share some important highlights and suggest reviewing their financials below: (https://www.sedar.com/DisplayCompanyDocuments.do?lang=EN&issuerNo=00020838)
https://preview.redd.it/dhuxx4hepspa1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=486a01ec3e2fc8f21628bd6a0a20c0a4607aaa57
Additional items:
- Bought back 1.8M shares in 2022
- Secured US OTC listing to increase access to US investors
- Renewed buyback program
- Available tax losses of $0.17/share
- Purchased $5.6M of new equipment
- Subsequently signed one of largest contracts in company history in Jan 2023

Share Structure
Enterprise currently has 50.3M shares outstanding, with another 5M options exercisable at $0.45. Notably, management/board were buyers in the open market over the last few years and now hold over 40% of all shares outstanding.
This is where I think it gets uniquely attractive for us retail investors.
Since the last energy cycle, nearly all of the research analysts that covered the sector have moved on, meaning the few analysts left covering the space are focused on large-cap players and there are none covering companies the size of Enterprise. There is a window for retail to build a position in a hugely profitable company with a tight share structure subject to a potential squeeze before institutions begin to take notice.
Finally – and maybe most importantly – 2022 saw a unique trading dynamic occur due to a large shareholder selling down their position. This shareholder accidentally accumulated a >10% ownership position, unknowingly triggering a requirement to file any purchase/sale of stock (see sedi filings to confirm). That shareholder then spent the entire year reducing their position below 10% but because there was not a large float of shares trading hands, effectively put a ceiling on the stock the entire year and single-handedly compressed the multiple. This does not appear to have been done with ill intent but explains why the stock bounced between a floor of around $0.38 (supported by the buyback) and $0.42 (where the shareholder was selling) despite everything going right for the company operationally. In January, the company bought back the final tranche of shares needed to get that shareholder below the 10% threshold, thereby clearing the way for share price to better track the improving cash flow of the company.

Valuation
Enterprise is currently trading at a deeply discounted valuation and historically low multiple, which is ironic considering this may be the best market they've ever operated in. As a particular point of reference, a comparison below for the 2020-2022 periods for EV/EBITDA and some other metrics that could influence the deserved multiple such as growth, profitability, and credit risk. I’ve also already listed a few reasons to be bullish on their future market (pipelines coming online beginning this year), which is consistent with management’s outlook from their MD&A that “…customers have indicated they will continue to operate at increased activities through the remainder of the year”. Though a 10-11x multiple shouldn't be expected moving forward, you can see the impact of having a large shareholder exiting with a small float and how a lack of share price movement can lose investor attention. Over the course of a year, Enterprise added over $5M in EBITDA (+175%) and barely saw its valuation change at all!

*2022 year using current share price
At a current 4.2x EV/EBITDA, Enterprise is trading far below the 6x it has traded in previous cycles and which seems very reasonable as a base case scenario. It would take very little notional buying for that re-rate to occur and for those able to establish a position at these prices, it would represent a 74% return.

https://preview.redd.it/90ink2aipspa1.png?width=867&format=png&auto=webp&s=0bfb3069ef4af77b5d3c2f473744dc7437238048
Finally, if Enterprise is seen through a different valuation lens**, the company just released in their earnings that equity holders would be due $0.68/share ($0.39 current share price) if the company simply sold all of their equipment at book value.** Multiple arguments to show that Enterprise is undervalued.

Outlook
Enterprise has a strong outlook on market fundamentals to support top line growth, increasing pricing power to maintain/increase margins and new revenue potential coming online with equipment additions.
Given history of M&A activity, balance sheet flexibility and the fact some targets are still not fully recovered from 2014-2021 period, it would be very surprising if the company did not make one or more acquisitions in the near-future. Management has said as much on their recent twitter spaces interview.
Fortunately for equity holders, management does not have to dilute shareholders while its equity remains undervalued. With $20M in unused credit at their disposal (their current market cap), they would have the ability to make a material acquisition without needing any equity at all. Even if they were to make an even larger acquisition, their debt providers are Ninepoint Partners (via Waygar Capital), who are home to none other than Eric Nuttall, who is the largest and most bullish energy fund manager on earth. You can bet that if the right target came along with the right assets/cash flow, Ninepoint would be more than happy to increase the size of that facility if they aren’t able to secure some seller's financing. If we assume a slight liquidity discount on a PrivateCo acquisition, $20M at 3x EV/EBITDA could buy around $6-7M of incremental EBITDA, effectively doubling the “cash flow” of the company before considering any synergies. Prospect of cross-selling new rental equipment would be high.
If something like this came to pass and they grew to a $15M EBITDA business, there would undoubtedly be a whole new supply of small institutions that would be interested and could be an attractive buyout candidate for private equity, who they’re currently competing with for acquisitions.

Risk
Commodity Risk:
This being the most obvious risk to the company. If we were to go back to the dark ages (2014-2021), there would be a material impact on Enterprise financials. I believe commodity risk for Enterprise is mitigated for 3 reasons:
  1. A decade of underinvestment in global energy supplies has the entire spectrum of energy prognosticators projecting supply deficits for oil and continued growth in global natural gas demand. Continued regulatory hurdles, ESG capital restrictions, end of US shale hypergrowth, and return-of-capital mandates by EnergyCo shareholders make it less likely we see reckless supply additions. Adding to that, we’ve now got China reopening, OPEC defending prices, and US supposedly refilling the SPR at some point (we’ll see).
  2. Infrastructure Developments: Canada has abundant reserves, with some of the cleanest and lowest-cost natural gas in the world with a painful lack of export capacity. A number of pipeline and LNG export facilities are set to come online, incentivizing a production increase to fill that pipeline. To me, this is the most powerful reason why I believe Enterprise has much lower commodity risk and has been repeated by recent research put out by RBC on the prospects of NE BC natural gas outlook.
  3. Tier 1 Client Book: Enterprise’s clients are some of the largest energy producers in North America, meaning they plan their development programs with a multi-year outlook that is less sensitive to short term price action. Further, many of its clients are actual providing the supply for LNG Canada (Sinopec, Petronas,
Market Downturn:
No doubt we are entering a period of uncertainty, with global liquidity being reduced and the risk of recession on the horizon. I think this should be viewed in two ways:
  1. Operations: Looking back, more often than not a significant global recession is more likely to reduce the rate of growth in oil demand rather than actually reducing demand. Natural gas is mostly used for heating and electricity generation, making it relatively inelastic as well. Global GDP is also more evenly spread between OECD and non-OECD, meaning growing countries like India will be less responsive to tightening financial conditions.
  2. Share Price: Enterprise is tracking towards a trailing 4x EV/EBITDA, with structural growth catalysts on the horizon (ie. pipelines) and excess cash flow available for buybacks. Even in a market panic, it is likely cash flows can continue to grow, providing continued support to the share price via buybacks.
  3. Recent meltdown in energy markets had almost no impact on Enterprise share price and would suspect that increased buybacks would be there for support if share price were to slide further.
It is the risk-adjusted return with fundamentals to back it up that make Enterprise special within the micro-cap space.

Summary
  1. Operating conditions look very strong for the company based on energy cycle and the foundation of new pipeline-related production increases in western Canada.
  2. Enterprise is a pure-play on western Canada with major well-capitalized nat gas clients poised for growth.
  3. Small size and cap structure provide potential for significant torque in share price.
  4. Enterprise has debt flexibility such that they don’t need to dilute equity at these valuations if M&A opportunities arise.
  5. Extremely profitable with 30%+ cash flow yield and optionality for buybacks or further investment in expanding equipment fleet for evolution power.
  6. Significant selling pressure from large shareholder has now ended after tendering shares to treasury in January 2023.
  7. A single large new shareholder has potential to re-rate the stock to base case of 6x EV/EBITDA multiple.
  8. Equity re-rate and M&A could see this company become very large, very quickly – drawing further flows of capital to the name at sufficient scale or be a prime takeout candidate for PE.
Disclosure:
I own shares in Enterprise. This is not financial advise. Please do your own due diligence.
submitted by BadTakeBrian to SmallCapStocks [link] [comments]


2023.03.25 03:16 BadTakeBrian Enterprise Group ($E.TO, $ETOLF.OTC): Cash Flow Machine, Deep Value, Squeeze Potential

Intro
I should start by saying that the search for a company like Enterprise began under the following pretense: I have a bearish view of where I think broad markets are going by the end of 2023 and wanted somewhere to hide out while still maintaining the potential to double my investment under any broad market scenario.
Enterprise Group fits that bill. The Company is a niche energy service company that provides site infrastructure services to remote western Canadian production sites for pipelines, construction and oil and gas sectors in western Canada. I believe Enterprise is a fantastic and deeply overlooked company fit for retail investors (like me) who have the ability to enter a position ahead of institutions catching hold of the name.
The core thesis on Enterprise is:
- Low correlation to broad markets
- High growth and 30% cash flow yield
- Healthy balance sheet providing ~$20M in dry powder for potential non-dilutive M&A
- Share buyback in place to support stock
- Unique low-emission fleet of equipment to grow market share
- Structural market expansion

History
Enterprise was founded in 2004, though as it stands today, is a much leaner and higher growth business compared to what it was in the last bull market for energy in 2008-2014. Where many competitors went out of business during the bear market between 2014-2021, Enterprise wisely divested from lower margin business units, preserved its balance sheet and due to its unique fleet of equipment – was able to maintain cash flow positive during this time. M&A is part of the corporate DNA of Enterprise and has had a successful track record on that front.
While others were still reeling from previous years downturn or still trying to repair their balance sheets in 2020/2021, Enterprise was able to utilize the strength of its balance sheet and positive cash flows to countercyclically invest into new business units to position themselves for the eventual return of energy markets we are now experiencing. A great example of this is the launch of Evolution Power in 2022, which offers a fleet of low-emission microgrids that power the entire production site with natural gas, replacing diesel generators. In doing so, EP reduces CO2 emissions by 30%, gives Enterprise higher margins, is safer and more efficient for the customer. As one of the few “green options” in the energy sector, they are becoming the first choice for larger oil and gas clients subject to Canada’s “heavy emitter” penalties.

Market
The large majority of Enterprise’s sales are derived from western Canadian energy producers, with a greater share of natural gas producers compared to oil producers within its book of clients. Though Enterprise profits have less commodity risk than their actual producing clients, the Company nevertheless is derivatively exposed to energy prices (though I believe there are some factors that reduce the correlation that I will get into later). After years of producers not investing into large exploration projects due to ESG mandates, regulations and low prices, the outlook on energy markets looks extremely promising for producers and has already begun to see a notable uptick in production levels that are expected to continue for a market that looks undersupplied in years ahead.
More specifically to Enterprise’s western Canadian market, there are some very visible demand drivers on the horizon based on new pipeline capacity that provide a near certain increase in demand for services like Enterprise. This demand is structured within tens of billions of dollars of sunk infrastructure capital to provide a roadmap of oil and gas (mostly gas) production expansion in western Canada. Beginning in 2023 with the completion of NGTL network expansion (gas) and TMX pipeline (oil), there will continue to be major new export capacity to come online nearly every year this decade, with recent first nations LNG projects advancing on the west coast.
For Canadian gas producers, the pipelines will allow them to access higher priced Asian markets, where prices are often multiples of those received in Canada or the US. You can bet there is going to be prompt increases to production to ship whatever they can to those markets, given the preferred economics.

Financials
Enterprise just recently released their full year 2022 financials March 20, 2023, where they posted fantastic results. Rather than do a deep dive into financials today, will simply share some important highlights and suggest reviewing their financials below: (https://www.sedar.com/DisplayCompanyDocuments.do?lang=EN&issuerNo=00020838)

https://preview.redd.it/ea50sup8ospa1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f5c7ac56063d95dcd54a4a3d5b09bb337cb12de
Additional items:
- Bought back 1.8M shares in 2022
- Secured US OTC listing to increase access to US investors
- Renewed buyback program
- Available tax losses of $0.17/share
- Purchased $5.6M of new equipment
- Subsequently signed one of largest contracts in company history in Jan 2023

Share Structure
Enterprise currently has 50.3M shares outstanding, with another 5M options exercisable at $0.45. Notably, management/board were buyers in the open market over the last few years and now hold over 40% of all shares outstanding.
This is where I think it gets uniquely attractive for us retail investors.
Since the last energy cycle, nearly all of the research analysts that covered the sector have moved on, meaning the few analysts left covering the space are focused on large-cap players and there are none covering companies the size of Enterprise. There is a window for retail to build a position in a hugely profitable company with a tight share structure subject to a potential squeeze before institutions begin to take notice.
Finally – and maybe most importantly – 2022 saw a unique trading dynamic occur due to a large shareholder selling down their position. This shareholder accidentally accumulated a >10% ownership position, unknowingly triggering a requirement to file any purchase/sale of stock (see sedi filings to confirm). That shareholder then spent the entire year reducing their position below 10% but because there was not a large float of shares trading hands, effectively put a ceiling on the stock the entire year and single-handedly compressed the multiple. This does not appear to have been done with ill intent but explains why the stock bounced between a floor of around $0.38 (supported by the buyback) and $0.42 (where the shareholder was selling) despite everything going right for the company operationally. In January, the company bought back the final tranche of shares needed to get that shareholder below the 10% threshold, thereby clearing the way for share price to better track the improving cash flow of the company.

Valuation
Enterprise is currently trading at a deeply discounted valuation and historically low multiple, which is ironic considering this may be the best market they've ever operated in. As a particular point of reference, a comparison below for the 2020-2022 periods for EV/EBITDA and some other metrics that could influence the deserved multiple such as growth, profitability, and credit risk. I’ve also already listed a few reasons to be bullish on their future market (pipelines coming online beginning this year), which is consistent with management’s outlook from their MD&A that “…customers have indicated they will continue to operate at increased activities through the remainder of the year”. Though a 10-11x multiple shouldn't be expected moving forward, you can see the impact of having a large shareholder exiting with a small float and how a lack of share price movement can lose investor attention. Over the course of a year, Enterprise added over $5M in EBITDA (+175%) and barely saw its valuation change at all!

*2022 year using current share price
At a current 4.2x EV/EBITDA, Enterprise is trading far below the 6x it has traded in previous cycles and which seems very reasonable as a base case scenario. It would take very little notional buying for that re-rate to occur and for those able to establish a position at these prices, it would represent a 74% return.
https://preview.redd.it/8ra74fvbospa1.png?width=867&format=png&auto=webp&s=660dd45a56abdf0c798057de86fde7b49a02b6e4
Finally, if Enterprise is seen through a different valuation lens**, the company just released in their earnings that equity holders would be due $0.68/share ($0.39 current share price) if the company simply sold all of their equipment at book value.** Multiple arguments to show that Enterprise is undervalued.

Outlook
Enterprise has a strong outlook on market fundamentals to support top line growth, increasing pricing power to maintain/increase margins and new revenue potential coming online with equipment additions.
Given history of M&A activity, balance sheet flexibility and the fact some targets are still not fully recovered from 2014-2021 period, it would be very surprising if the company did not make one or more acquisitions in the near-future. Management has said as much on their recent twitter spaces interview.
Fortunately for equity holders, management does not have to dilute shareholders while its equity remains undervalued. With $20M in unused credit at their disposal (their current market cap), they would have the ability to make a material acquisition without needing any equity at all. Even if they were to make an even larger acquisition, their debt providers are Ninepoint Partners (via Waygar Capital), who are home to none other than Eric Nuttall, who is the largest and most bullish energy fund manager on earth. You can bet that if the right target came along with the right assets/cash flow, Ninepoint would be more than happy to increase the size of that facility if they aren’t able to secure some seller's financing. If we assume a slight liquidity discount on a PrivateCo acquisition, $20M at 3x EV/EBITDA could buy around $6-7M of incremental EBITDA, effectively doubling the “cash flow” of the company before considering any synergies. Prospect of cross-selling new rental equipment would be high.
If something like this came to pass and they grew to a $15M EBITDA business, there would undoubtedly be a whole new supply of small institutions that would be interested and could be an attractive buyout candidate for private equity, who they’re currently competing with for acquisitions.

Risk
Commodity Risk:
This being the most obvious risk to the company. If we were to go back to the dark ages (2014-2021), there would be a material impact on Enterprise financials. I believe commodity risk for Enterprise is mitigated for 3 reasons:
  1. A decade of underinvestment in global energy supplies has the entire spectrum of energy prognosticators projecting supply deficits for oil and continued growth in global natural gas demand. Continued regulatory hurdles, ESG capital restrictions, end of US shale hypergrowth, and return-of-capital mandates by EnergyCo shareholders make it less likely we see reckless supply additions. Adding to that, we’ve now got China reopening, OPEC defending prices, and US supposedly refilling the SPR at some point (we’ll see).
  2. Infrastructure Developments: Canada has abundant reserves, with some of the cleanest and lowest-cost natural gas in the world with a painful lack of export capacity. A number of pipeline and LNG export facilities are set to come online, incentivizing a production increase to fill that pipeline. To me, this is the most powerful reason why I believe Enterprise has much lower commodity risk and has been repeated by recent research put out by RBC on the prospects of NE BC natural gas outlook.
  3. Tier 1 Client Book: Enterprise’s clients are some of the largest energy producers in North America, meaning they plan their development programs with a multi-year outlook that is less sensitive to short term price action. Further, many of its clients are actual providing the supply for LNG Canada (Sinopec, Petronas,
Market Downturn:
No doubt we are entering a period of uncertainty, with global liquidity being reduced and the risk of recession on the horizon. I think this should be viewed in two ways:
  1. Operations: Looking back, more often than not a significant global recession is more likely to reduce the rate of growth in oil demand rather than actually reducing demand. Natural gas is mostly used for heating and electricity generation, making it relatively inelastic as well. Global GDP is also more evenly spread between OECD and non-OECD, meaning growing countries like India will be less responsive to tightening financial conditions.
  2. Share Price: Enterprise is tracking towards a trailing 4x EV/EBITDA, with structural growth catalysts on the horizon (ie. pipelines) and excess cash flow available for buybacks. Even in a market panic, it is likely cash flows can continue to grow, providing continued support to the share price via buybacks.
  3. Recent meltdown in energy markets had almost no impact on Enterprise share price and would suspect that increased buybacks would be there for support if share price were to slide further.
It is the risk-adjusted return with fundamentals to back it up that make Enterprise special within the micro-cap space.

Summary
  1. Operating conditions look very strong for the company based on energy cycle and the foundation of new pipeline-related production increases in western Canada.
  2. Enterprise is a pure-play on western Canada with major well-capitalized nat gas clients poised for growth.
  3. Small size and cap structure provide potential for significant torque in share price.
  4. Enterprise has debt flexibility such that they don’t need to dilute equity at these valuations if M&A opportunities arise.
  5. Extremely profitable with 30%+ cash flow yield and optionality for buybacks or further investment in expanding equipment fleet for evolution power.
  6. Significant selling pressure from large shareholder has now ended after tendering shares to treasury in January 2023.
  7. A single large new shareholder has potential to re-rate the stock to base case of 6x EV/EBITDA multiple.
  8. Equity re-rate and M&A could see this company become very large, very quickly – drawing further flows of capital to the name at sufficient scale or be a prime takeout candidate for PE.
Disclosure:
I own shares in Enterprise. This is not financial advise. Please do your own due diligence.
submitted by BadTakeBrian to OTCstocks [link] [comments]


2023.03.25 03:10 BadTakeBrian Enterprise Group ($E.TO, $ETOLF.OTC): Cash Flow Machine, Deep Value, Squeeze Potential

Enterprise Group ($E.TO, $ETOLF.OTC): Cash Flow Machine, Deep Value, Squeeze Potential
Intro
I should start by saying that the search for a company like Enterprise began under the following pretense: I have a bearish view of where I think broad markets are going by the end of 2023 and wanted somewhere to hide out while still maintaining the potential to double my investment under any broad market scenario.
Enterprise Group fits that bill. The Company is a niche energy service company that provides site infrastructure services to remote western Canadian production sites for pipelines, construction and oil and gas sectors in western Canada. I believe Enterprise is a fantastic and deeply overlooked company fit for retail investors (like me) who have the ability to enter a position ahead of institutions catching hold of the name.
The core thesis on Enterprise is:
- Low correlation to broad markets
- High growth and 30% cash flow yield
- Healthy balance sheet providing ~$20M in dry powder for potential non-dilutive M&A
- Share buyback in place to support stock
- Unique low-emission fleet of equipment to grow market share
- Structural market expansion

History
Enterprise was founded in 2004, though as it stands today, is a much leaner and higher growth business compared to what it was in the last bull market for energy in 2008-2014. Where many competitors went out of business during the bear market between 2014-2021, Enterprise wisely divested from lower margin business units, preserved its balance sheet and due to its unique fleet of equipment – was able to maintain cash flow positive during this time. M&A is part of the corporate DNA of Enterprise and has had a successful track record on that front.
While others were still reeling from previous years downturn or still trying to repair their balance sheets in 2020/2021, Enterprise was able to utilize the strength of its balance sheet and positive cash flows to countercyclically invest into new business units to position themselves for the eventual return of energy markets we are now experiencing. A great example of this is the launch of Evolution Power in 2022, which offers a fleet of low-emission microgrids that power the entire production site with natural gas, replacing diesel generators. In doing so, EP reduces CO2 emissions by 30%, gives Enterprise higher margins, is safer and more efficient for the customer. As one of the few “green options” in the energy sector, they are becoming the first choice for larger oil and gas clients subject to Canada’s “heavy emitter” penalties.

Market
The large majority of Enterprise’s sales are derived from western Canadian energy producers, with a greater share of natural gas producers compared to oil producers within its book of clients. Though Enterprise profits have less commodity risk than their actual producing clients, the Company nevertheless is derivatively exposed to energy prices (though I believe there are some factors that reduce the correlation that I will get into later). After years of producers not investing into large exploration projects due to ESG mandates, regulations and low prices, the outlook on energy markets looks extremely promising for producers and has already begun to see a notable uptick in production levels that are expected to continue for a market that looks undersupplied in years ahead.
More specifically to Enterprise’s western Canadian market, there are some very visible demand drivers on the horizon based on new pipeline capacity that provide a near certain increase in demand for services like Enterprise. This demand is structured within tens of billions of dollars of sunk infrastructure capital to provide a roadmap of oil and gas (mostly gas) production expansion in western Canada. Beginning in 2023 with the completion of NGTL network expansion (gas) and TMX pipeline (oil), there will continue to be major new export capacity to come online nearly every year this decade, with recent first nations LNG projects advancing on the west coast.
For Canadian gas producers, the pipelines will allow them to access higher priced Asian markets, where prices are often multiples of those received in Canada or the US. You can bet there is going to be prompt increases to production to ship whatever they can to those markets, given the preferred economics.

Financials
Enterprise just recently released their full year 2022 financials March 20, 2023, where they posted fantastic results. Rather than do a deep dive into financials today, will simply share some important highlights and suggest reviewing their financials below: (https://www.sedar.com/DisplayCompanyDocuments.do?lang=EN&issuerNo=00020838)
https://preview.redd.it/ymc70id9nspa1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=26955ea33a9149480d2629bea8fa7f8f0c7acb48
Additional items:
- Bought back 1.8M shares in 2022
- Secured US OTC listing to increase access to US investors
- Renewed buyback program
- Available tax losses of $0.17/share
- Purchased $5.6M of new equipment
- Subsequently signed one of largest contracts in company history in Jan 2023

Share Structure
Enterprise currently has 50.3M shares outstanding, with another 5M options exercisable at $0.45. Notably, management/board were buyers in the open market over the last few years and now hold over 40% of all shares outstanding.
This is where I think it gets uniquely attractive for us retail investors.
Since the last energy cycle, nearly all of the research analysts that covered the sector have moved on, meaning the few analysts left covering the space are focused on large-cap players and there are none covering companies the size of Enterprise. There is a window for retail to build a position in a hugely profitable company with a tight share structure subject to a potential squeeze before institutions begin to take notice.
Finally – and maybe most importantly – 2022 saw a unique trading dynamic occur due to a large shareholder selling down their position. This shareholder accidentally accumulated a >10% ownership position, unknowingly triggering a requirement to file any purchase/sale of stock (see sedi filings to confirm). That shareholder then spent the entire year reducing their position below 10% but because there was not a large float of shares trading hands, effectively put a ceiling on the stock the entire year and single-handedly compressed the multiple. This does not appear to have been done with ill intent but explains why the stock bounced between a floor of around $0.38 (supported by the buyback) and $0.42 (where the shareholder was selling) despite everything going right for the company operationally. In January, the company bought back the final tranche of shares needed to get that shareholder below the 10% threshold, thereby clearing the way for share price to better track the improving cash flow of the company.

Valuation
Enterprise is currently trading at a deeply discounted valuation and historically low multiple, which is ironic considering this may be the best market they've ever operated in. As a particular point of reference, a comparison below for the 2020-2022 periods for EV/EBITDA and some other metrics that could influence the deserved multiple such as growth, profitability, and credit risk. I’ve also already listed a few reasons to be bullish on their future market (pipelines coming online beginning this year), which is consistent with management’s outlook from their MD&A that “…customers have indicated they will continue to operate at increased activities through the remainder of the year”. Though a 10-11x multiple shouldn't be expected moving forward, you can see the impact of having a large shareholder exiting with a small float and how a lack of share price movement can lose investor attention. Over the course of a year, Enterprise added over $5M in EBITDA (+175%) and barely saw its valuation change at all!

*2022 year using current share price
At a current 4.2x EV/EBITDA, Enterprise is trading far below the 6x it has traded in previous cycles and which seems very reasonable as a base case scenario. It would take very little notional buying for that re-rate to occur and for those able to establish a position at these prices, it would represent a 74% return.
https://preview.redd.it/spnyv47dnspa1.png?width=867&format=png&auto=webp&s=652a9ce3e786aa5b88a9c4f8a0ec94d8a9b62aa7
Finally, if Enterprise is seen through a different valuation lens**, the company just released in their earnings that equity holders would be due $0.68/share ($0.39 current share price) if the company simply sold all of their equipment at book value.** Multiple arguments to show that Enterprise is undervalued.

Outlook
Enterprise has a strong outlook on market fundamentals to support top line growth, increasing pricing power to maintain/increase margins and new revenue potential coming online with equipment additions.
Given history of M&A activity, balance sheet flexibility and the fact some targets are still not fully recovered from 2014-2021 period, it would be very surprising if the company did not make one or more acquisitions in the near-future. Management has said as much on their recent twitter spaces interview.
Fortunately for equity holders, management does not have to dilute shareholders while its equity remains undervalued. With $20M in unused credit at their disposal (their current market cap), they would have the ability to make a material acquisition without needing any equity at all. Even if they were to make an even larger acquisition, their debt providers are Ninepoint Partners (via Waygar Capital), who are home to none other than Eric Nuttall, who is the largest and most bullish energy fund manager on earth. You can bet that if the right target came along with the right assets/cash flow, Ninepoint would be more than happy to increase the size of that facility if they aren’t able to secure some seller's financing. If we assume a slight liquidity discount on a PrivateCo acquisition, $20M at 3x EV/EBITDA could buy around $6-7M of incremental EBITDA, effectively doubling the “cash flow” of the company before considering any synergies. Prospect of cross-selling new rental equipment would be high.
If something like this came to pass and they grew to a $15M EBITDA business, there would undoubtedly be a whole new supply of small institutions that would be interested and could be an attractive buyout candidate for private equity, who they’re currently competing with for acquisitions.

Risk
Commodity Risk:
This being the most obvious risk to the company. If we were to go back to the dark ages (2014-2021), there would be a material impact on Enterprise financials. I believe commodity risk for Enterprise is mitigated for 3 reasons:
  1. A decade of underinvestment in global energy supplies has the entire spectrum of energy prognosticators projecting supply deficits for oil and continued growth in global natural gas demand. Continued regulatory hurdles, ESG capital restrictions, end of US shale hypergrowth, and return-of-capital mandates by EnergyCo shareholders make it less likely we see reckless supply additions. Adding to that, we’ve now got China reopening, OPEC defending prices, and US supposedly refilling the SPR at some point (we’ll see).
  2. Infrastructure Developments: Canada has abundant reserves, with some of the cleanest and lowest-cost natural gas in the world with a painful lack of export capacity. A number of pipeline and LNG export facilities are set to come online, incentivizing a production increase to fill that pipeline. To me, this is the most powerful reason why I believe Enterprise has much lower commodity risk and has been repeated by recent research put out by RBC on the prospects of NE BC natural gas outlook.
  3. Tier 1 Client Book: Enterprise’s clients are some of the largest energy producers in North America, meaning they plan their development programs with a multi-year outlook that is less sensitive to short term price action. Further, many of its clients are actual providing the supply for LNG Canada (Sinopec, Petronas,
Market Downturn:
No doubt we are entering a period of uncertainty, with global liquidity being reduced and the risk of recession on the horizon. I think this should be viewed in two ways:
  1. Operations: Looking back, more often than not a significant global recession is more likely to reduce the rate of growth in oil demand rather than actually reducing demand. Natural gas is mostly used for heating and electricity generation, making it relatively inelastic as well. Global GDP is also more evenly spread between OECD and non-OECD, meaning growing countries like India will be less responsive to tightening financial conditions.
  2. Share Price: Enterprise is tracking towards a trailing 4x EV/EBITDA, with structural growth catalysts on the horizon (ie. pipelines) and excess cash flow available for buybacks. Even in a market panic, it is likely cash flows can continue to grow, providing continued support to the share price via buybacks.
  3. Recent meltdown in energy markets had almost no impact on Enterprise share price and would suspect that increased buybacks would be there for support if share price were to slide further.
It is the risk-adjusted return with fundamentals to back it up that make Enterprise special within the micro-cap space.

Summary
  1. Operating conditions look very strong for the company based on energy cycle and the foundation of new pipeline-related production increases in western Canada.
  2. Enterprise is a pure-play on western Canada with major well-capitalized nat gas clients poised for growth.
  3. Small size and cap structure provide potential for significant torque in share price.
  4. Enterprise has debt flexibility such that they don’t need to dilute equity at these valuations if M&A opportunities arise.
  5. Extremely profitable with 30%+ cash flow yield and optionality for buybacks or further investment in expanding equipment fleet for evolution power.
  6. Significant selling pressure from large shareholder has now ended after tendering shares to treasury in January 2023.
  7. A single large new shareholder has potential to re-rate the stock to base case of 6x EV/EBITDA multiple.
  8. Equity re-rate and M&A could see this company become very large, very quickly – drawing further flows of capital to the name at sufficient scale or be a prime takeout candidate for PE.
Disclosure:
I own shares in Enterprise. This is not financial advise. Please do your own due diligence.
submitted by BadTakeBrian to 10xPennyStocks [link] [comments]


2023.03.25 02:58 BadTakeBrian Enterprise Group ($E.TO, $ETOLF.OTC): Cash Flow Machine, Deep Value, Squeeze Potential

Enterprise Group ($E.TO, $ETOLF.OTC): Cash Flow Machine, Deep Value, Squeeze Potential
Intro
I should start by saying that the search for a company like Enterprise began under the following pretense: I have a bearish view of where I think broad markets are going by the end of 2023 and wanted somewhere to hide out while still maintaining the potential to double my investment under any broad market scenario.
Enterprise Group fits that bill. The Company is a niche energy service company that provides site infrastructure services to remote western Canadian production sites for pipelines, construction and oil and gas sectors in western Canada. I believe Enterprise is a fantastic and deeply overlooked company fit for retail investors (like me) who have the ability to enter a position ahead of institutions catching hold of the name.
The core thesis on Enterprise is:
- Low correlation to broad markets
- High growth and 30% cash flow yield
- Healthy balance sheet providing ~$20M in dry powder for potential non-dilutive M&A
- Share buyback in place to support stock
- Unique low-emission fleet of equipment to grow market share
- Structural market expansion

History
Enterprise was founded in 2004, though as it stands today, is a much leaner and higher growth business compared to what it was in the last bull market for energy in 2008-2014. Where many competitors went out of business during the bear market between 2014-2021, Enterprise wisely divested from lower margin business units, preserved its balance sheet and due to its unique fleet of equipment – was able to maintain cash flow positive during this time. M&A is part of the corporate DNA of Enterprise and has had a successful track record on that front.
While others were still reeling from previous years downturn or still trying to repair their balance sheets in 2020/2021, Enterprise was able to utilize the strength of its balance sheet and positive cash flows to countercyclically invest into new business units to position themselves for the eventual return of energy markets we are now experiencing. A great example of this is the launch of Evolution Power in 2022, which offers a fleet of low-emission microgrids that power the entire production site with natural gas, replacing diesel generators. In doing so, EP reduces CO2 emissions by 30%, gives Enterprise higher margins, is safer and more efficient for the customer. As one of the few “green options” in the energy sector, they are becoming the first choice for larger oil and gas clients subject to Canada’s “heavy emitter” penalties.

Market
The large majority of Enterprise’s sales are derived from western Canadian energy producers, with a greater share of natural gas producers compared to oil producers within its book of clients. Though Enterprise profits have less commodity risk than their actual producing clients, the Company nevertheless is derivatively exposed to energy prices (though I believe there are some factors that reduce the correlation that I will get into later). After years of producers not investing into large exploration projects due to ESG mandates, regulations and low prices, the outlook on energy markets looks extremely promising for producers and has already begun to see a notable uptick in production levels that are expected to continue for a market that looks undersupplied in years ahead.
More specifically to Enterprise’s western Canadian market, there are some very visible demand drivers on the horizon based on new pipeline capacity that provide a near certain increase in demand for services like Enterprise. This demand is structured within tens of billions of dollars of sunk infrastructure capital to provide a roadmap of oil and gas (mostly gas) production expansion in western Canada. Beginning in 2023 with the completion of NGTL network expansion (gas) and TMX pipeline (oil), there will continue to be major new export capacity to come online nearly every year this decade, with recent first nations LNG projects advancing on the west coast.
For Canadian gas producers, the pipelines will allow them to access higher priced Asian markets, where prices are often multiples of those received in Canada or the US. You can bet there is going to be prompt increases to production to ship whatever they can to those markets, given the preferred economics.

Financials
Enterprise just recently released their full year 2022 financials March 20, 2023, where they posted fantastic results. Rather than do a deep dive into financials today, will simply share some important highlights and suggest reviewing their financials below: (https://www.sedar.com/DisplayCompanyDocuments.do?lang=EN&issuerNo=00020838)
https://preview.redd.it/2apvhzq3lspa1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f98336dfb84cfcc9cc3d75aecd6d4c464593ea9
Additional items:
- Bought back 1.8M shares in 2022
- Secured US OTC listing to increase access to US investors
- Renewed buyback program
- Available tax losses of $0.17/share
- Purchased $5.6M of new equipment
- Subsequently signed one of largest contracts in company history in Jan 2023

Share Structure
Enterprise currently has 50.3M shares outstanding, with another 5M options exercisable at $0.45. Notably, management/board were buyers in the open market over the last few years and now hold over 40% of all shares outstanding.
This is where I think it gets uniquely attractive for us retail investors.
Since the last energy cycle, nearly all of the research analysts that covered the sector have moved on, meaning the few analysts left covering the space are focused on large-cap players and there are none covering companies the size of Enterprise. There is a window for retail to build a position in a hugely profitable company with a tight share structure subject to a potential squeeze before institutions begin to take notice.
Finally – and maybe most importantly – 2022 saw a unique trading dynamic occur due to a large shareholder selling down their position. This shareholder accidentally accumulated a >10% ownership position, unknowingly triggering a requirement to file any purchase/sale of stock (see sedi filings to confirm). That shareholder then spent the entire year reducing their position below 10% but because there was not a large float of shares trading hands, effectively put a ceiling on the stock the entire year and single-handedly compressed the multiple. This does not appear to have been done with ill intent but explains why the stock bounced between a floor of around $0.38 (supported by the buyback) and $0.42 (where the shareholder was selling) despite everything going right for the company operationally. In January, the company bought back the final tranche of shares needed to get that shareholder below the 10% threshold, thereby clearing the way for share price to better track the improving cash flow of the company.

Valuation
Enterprise is currently trading at a deeply discounted valuation and historically low multiple, which is ironic considering this may be the best market they've ever operated in. As a particular point of reference, a comparison below for the 2020-2022 periods for EV/EBITDA and some other metrics that could influence the deserved multiple such as growth, profitability, and credit risk. I’ve also already listed a few reasons to be bullish on their future market (pipelines coming online beginning this year), which is consistent with management’s outlook from their MD&A that “…customers have indicated they will continue to operate at increased activities through the remainder of the year”. Though a 10-11x multiple shouldn't be expected moving forward, you can see the impact of having a large shareholder exiting with a small float and how a lack of share price movement can lose investor attention. Over the course of a year, Enterprise added over $5M in EBITDA (+175%) and barely saw its valuation change at all!
*2022 year using current share price
At a current 4.2x EV/EBITDA, Enterprise is trading far below the 6x it has traded in previous cycles and which seems very reasonable as a base case scenario. It would take very little notional buying for that re-rate to occur and for those able to establish a position at these prices, it would represent a 74% return.

https://preview.redd.it/nfwcfd2zkspa1.png?width=867&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f214d0505cc1df9f2d87f84c0e4727ed7459c0d
Finally, if Enterprise is seen through a different valuation lens**, the company just released in their earnings that equity holders would be due $0.68/share ($0.39 current share price) if the company simply sold all of their equipment at book value.** Multiple arguments to show that Enterprise is undervalued.

Outlook
Enterprise has a strong outlook on market fundamentals to support top line growth, increasing pricing power to maintain/increase margins and new revenue potential coming online with equipment additions.
Given history of M&A activity, balance sheet flexibility and the fact some targets are still not fully recovered from 2014-2021 period, it would be very surprising if the company did not make one or more acquisitions in the near-future. Management has said as much on their recent twitter spaces interview.
Fortunately for equity holders, management does not have to dilute shareholders while its equity remains undervalued. With $20M in unused credit at their disposal (their current market cap), they would have the ability to make a material acquisition without needing any equity at all. Even if they were to make an even larger acquisition, their debt providers are Ninepoint Partners (via Waygar Capital), who are home to none other than Eric Nuttall, who is the largest and most bullish energy fund manager on earth. You can bet that if the right target came along with the right assets/cash flow, Ninepoint would be more than happy to increase the size of that facility if they aren’t able to secure some seller's financing. If we assume a slight liquidity discount on a PrivateCo acquisition, $20M at 3x EV/EBITDA could buy around $6-7M of incremental EBITDA, effectively doubling the “cash flow” of the company before considering any synergies. Prospect of cross-selling new rental equipment would be high.
If something like this came to pass and they grew to a $15M EBITDA business, there would undoubtedly be a whole new supply of small institutions that would be interested and could be an attractive buyout candidate for private equity, who they’re currently competing with for acquisitions.

Risk
Commodity Risk:
This being the most obvious risk to the company. If we were to go back to the dark ages (2014-2021), there would be a material impact on Enterprise financials. I believe commodity risk for Enterprise is mitigated for 3 reasons:
  1. A decade of underinvestment in global energy supplies has the entire spectrum of energy prognosticators projecting supply deficits for oil and continued growth in global natural gas demand. Continued regulatory hurdles, ESG capital restrictions, end of US shale hypergrowth, and return-of-capital mandates by EnergyCo shareholders make it less likely we see reckless supply additions. Adding to that, we’ve now got China reopening, OPEC defending prices, and US supposedly refilling the SPR at some point (we’ll see).
  2. Infrastructure Developments: Canada has abundant reserves, with some of the cleanest and lowest-cost natural gas in the world with a painful lack of export capacity. A number of pipeline and LNG export facilities are set to come online, incentivizing a production increase to fill that pipeline. To me, this is the most powerful reason why I believe Enterprise has much lower commodity risk and has been repeated by recent research put out by RBC on the prospects of NE BC natural gas outlook.
  3. Tier 1 Client Book: Enterprise’s clients are some of the largest energy producers in North America, meaning they plan their development programs with a multi-year outlook that is less sensitive to short term price action. Further, many of its clients are actual providing the supply for LNG Canada (Sinopec, Petronas,
Market Downturn:
No doubt we are entering a period of uncertainty, with global liquidity being reduced and the risk of recession on the horizon. I think this should be viewed in two ways:
  1. Operations: Looking back, more often than not a significant global recession is more likely to reduce the rate of growth in oil demand rather than actually reducing demand. Natural gas is mostly used for heating and electricity generation, making it relatively inelastic as well. Global GDP is also more evenly spread between OECD and non-OECD, meaning growing countries like India will be less responsive to tightening financial conditions.
  2. Share Price: Enterprise is tracking towards a trailing 4x EV/EBITDA, with structural growth catalysts on the horizon (ie. pipelines) and excess cash flow available for buybacks. Even in a market panic, it is likely cash flows can continue to grow, providing continued support to the share price via buybacks.
  3. Recent meltdown in energy markets had almost no impact on Enterprise share price and would suspect that increased buybacks would be there for support if share price were to slide further.
It is the risk-adjusted return with fundamentals to back it up that make Enterprise special within the micro-cap space.

Summary
  1. Operating conditions look very strong for the company based on energy cycle and the foundation of new pipeline-related production increases in western Canada.
  2. Enterprise is a pure-play on western Canada with major well-capitalized nat gas clients poised for growth.
  3. Small size and cap structure provide potential for significant torque in share price.
  4. Enterprise has debt flexibility such that they don’t need to dilute equity at these valuations if M&A opportunities arise.
  5. Extremely profitable with 30%+ cash flow yield and optionality for buybacks or further investment in expanding equipment fleet for evolution power.
  6. Significant selling pressure from large shareholder has now ended after tendering shares to treasury in January 2023.
  7. A single large new shareholder has potential to re-rate the stock to base case of 6x EV/EBITDA multiple.
  8. Equity re-rate and M&A could see this company become very large, very quickly – drawing further flows of capital to the name at sufficient scale or be a prime takeout candidate for PE.
Disclosure:
I own shares in Enterprise. This is not financial advise. Please do your own due diligence.
submitted by BadTakeBrian to PennyHaven [link] [comments]


2023.03.25 00:21 BadTakeBrian Enterprise Group ($E.TO, $ETOLF.OTC): Cash Flow Machine, Deep Value, Squeeze Potential

Enterprise Group ($E.TO, $ETOLF.OTC): Cash Flow Machine, Deep Value, Squeeze Potential
Intro
I should start by saying that the search for a company like Enterprise began under the following pretense: I have a bearish view of where I think broad markets are going by the end of 2023 and wanted somewhere to hide out while still maintaining the potential to double my investment under any broad market scenario.
Enterprise Group fits that bill. The Company is a niche energy service company that provides site infrastructure services to remote western Canadian production sites for pipelines, construction and oil and gas sectors in western Canada. I believe Enterprise is a fantastic and deeply overlooked company fit for retail investors (like me) who have the ability to enter a position ahead of institutions catching hold of the name.
The core thesis on Enterprise is:
- Low correlation to broad markets
- High growth and 30% cash flow yield
- Healthy balance sheet providing ~$20M in dry powder for potential non-dilutive M&A
- Share buyback in place to support stock
- Unique low-emission fleet of equipment to grow market share
- Structural market expansion

History
Enterprise was founded in 2004, though as it stands today, is a much leaner and higher growth business compared to what it was in the last bull market for energy in 2008-2014. Where many competitors went out of business during the bear market between 2014-2021, Enterprise wisely divested from lower margin business units, preserved its balance sheet and due to its unique fleet of equipment – was able to maintain cash flow positive during this time. M&A is part of the corporate DNA of Enterprise and has had a successful track record on that front.
While others were still reeling from previous years downturn or still trying to repair their balance sheets in 2020/2021, Enterprise was able to utilize the strength of its balance sheet and positive cash flows to countercyclically invest into new business units to position themselves for the eventual return of energy markets we are now experiencing. A great example of this is the launch of Evolution Power in 2022, which offers a fleet of low-emission microgrids that power the entire production site with natural gas, replacing diesel generators. In doing so, EP reduces CO2 emissions by 30%, gives Enterprise higher margins, is safer and more efficient for the customer. As one of the few “green options” in the energy sector, they are becoming the first choice for larger oil and gas clients subject to Canada’s “heavy emitter” penalties.

Market
The large majority of Enterprise’s sales are derived from western Canadian energy producers, with a greater share of natural gas producers compared to oil producers within its book of clients. Though Enterprise profits have less commodity risk than their actual producing clients, the Company nevertheless is derivatively exposed to energy prices (though I believe there are some factors that reduce the correlation that I will get into later). After years of producers not investing into large exploration projects due to ESG mandates, regulations and low prices, the outlook on energy markets looks extremely promising for producers and has already begun to see a notable uptick in production levels that are expected to continue for a market that looks undersupplied in years ahead.
More specifically to Enterprise’s western Canadian market, there are some very visible demand drivers on the horizon based on new pipeline capacity that provide a near certain increase in demand for services like Enterprise. This demand is structured within tens of billions of dollars of sunk infrastructure capital to provide a roadmap of oil and gas (mostly gas) production expansion in western Canada. Beginning in 2023 with the completion of NGTL network expansion (gas) and TMX pipeline (oil), there will continue to be major new export capacity to come online nearly every year this decade, with recent first nations LNG projects advancing on the west coast.
For Canadian gas producers, the pipelines will allow them to access higher priced Asian markets, where prices are often multiples of those received in Canada or the US. You can bet there is going to be prompt increases to production to ship whatever they can to those markets, given the preferred economics.

Financials
Enterprise just recently released their full year 2022 financials March 20, 2023, where they posted fantastic results. Rather than do a deep dive into financials today, will simply share some important highlights and suggest reviewing their financials below: (https://www.sedar.com/DisplayCompanyDocuments.do?lang=EN&issuerNo=00020838)

https://preview.redd.it/ogc5c1c9hrpa1.png?width=1084&format=png&auto=webp&s=0fc4acc759557050f871276caaa8ce07de9c66a0
Additional items:
- Bought back 1.8M shares in 2022
- Secured US OTC listing to increase access to US investors
- Renewed buyback program
- Available tax losses of $0.17/share
- Purchased $5.6M of new equipment
- Subsequently signed one of largest contracts in company history in Jan 2023

Share Structure
Enterprise currently has 50.3M shares outstanding, with another 5M options exercisable at $0.45. Notably, management/board were buyers in the open market over the last few years and now hold over 40% of all shares outstanding.
This is where I think it gets uniquely attractive for us retail investors.
Since the last energy cycle, nearly all of the research analysts that covered the sector have moved on, meaning the few analysts left covering the space are focused on large-cap players and there are none covering companies the size of Enterprise. There is a window for retail to build a position in a hugely profitable company with a tight share structure subject to a potential squeeze before institutions begin to take notice.
Finally – and maybe most importantly – 2022 saw a unique trading dynamic occur due to a large shareholder selling down their position. This shareholder accidentally accumulated a >10% ownership position, unknowingly triggering a requirement to file any purchase/sale of stock (see sedi filings to confirm). That shareholder then spent the entire year reducing their position below 10% but because there was not a large float of shares trading hands, effectively put a ceiling on the stock the entire year and single-handedly compressed the multiple. This does not appear to have been done with ill intent but explains why the stock bounced between a floor of around $0.38 (supported by the buyback) and $0.42 (where the shareholder was selling) despite everything going right for the company operationally. In January, the company bought back the final tranche of shares needed to get that shareholder below the 10% threshold, thereby clearing the way for share price to better track the improving cash flow of the company.

Valuation
Enterprise is currently trading at a deeply discounted valuation and historically low multiple, which is ironic considering this may be the best market they've ever operated in. As a particular point of reference, a comparison below for the 2020-2022 periods for EV/EBITDA and some other metrics that could influence the deserved multiple such as growth, profitability, and credit risk. I’ve also already listed a few reasons to be bullish on their future market (pipelines coming online beginning this year), which is consistent with management’s outlook from their MD&A that “…customers have indicated they will continue to operate at increased activities through the remainder of the year”. Though a 10-11x multiple shouldn't be expected moving forward, you can see the impact of having a large shareholder exiting with a small float and how a lack of share price movement can lose investor attention. Over the course of a year, Enterprise added over $5M in EBITDA (+175%) and barely saw its valuation change at all!
*2022 year using current share price
At a current 4.2x EV/EBITDA, Enterprise is trading far below the 6x it has traded in previous cycles and which seems very reasonable as a base case scenario. It would take very little notional buying for that re-rate to occur and for those able to establish a position at these prices, it would represent a 74% return.
https://preview.redd.it/vhxfi754orpa1.png?width=867&format=png&auto=webp&s=c5e4b94325c510a57a9de0cf6caae70915db4f4d
Finally, if Enterprise is seen through a different valuation lens, the company just released in their earnings that equity holders would be due $0.68/share ($0.39 current share price) if the company simply sold all of their equipment at book value. Multiple arguments to show that Enterprise is undervalued.

Outlook
Enterprise has a strong outlook on market fundamentals to support top line growth, increasing pricing power to maintain/increase margins and new revenue potential coming online with equipment additions.
Given history of M&A activity, balance sheet flexibility and the fact some targets are still not fully recovered from 2014-2021 period, it would be very surprising if the company did not make one or more acquisitions in the near-future. Management has said as much on their recent twitter spaces interview.
Fortunately for equity holders, management does not have to dilute shareholders while its equity remains undervalued. With $20M in unused credit at their disposal (their current market cap), they would have the ability to make a material acquisition without needing any equity at all. Even if they were to make an even larger acquisition, their debt providers are Ninepoint Partners (via Waygar Capital), who are home to none other than Eric Nuttall, who is the largest and most bullish energy fund manager on earth. You can bet that if the right target came along with the right assets/cash flow, Ninepoint would be more than happy to increase the size of that facility if they aren’t able to secure some seller's financing. If we assume a slight liquidity discount on a PrivateCo acquisition, $20M at 3x EV/EBITDA could buy around $6-7M of incremental EBITDA, effectively doubling the “cash flow” of the company before considering any synergies. Prospect of cross-selling new rental equipment would be high.
If something like this came to pass and they grew to a $15M EBITDA business, there would undoubtedly be a whole new supply of small institutions that would be interested and could be an attractive buyout candidate for private equity, who they’re currently competing with for acquisitions.
Risk
Commodity Risk:
This being the most obvious risk to the company. If we were to go back to the dark ages (2014-2021), there would be a material impact on Enterprise financials. I believe commodity risk for Enterprise is mitigated for 3 reasons:
1) A decade of underinvestment in global energy supplies has the entire spectrum of energy prognosticators projecting supply deficits for oil and continued growth in global natural gas demand. Continued regulatory hurdles, ESG capital restrictions, end of US shale hypergrowth, and return-of-capital mandates by EnergyCo shareholders make it less likely we see reckless supply additions. Adding to that, we’ve now got China reopening, OPEC defending prices, and US supposedly refilling the SPR at some point (we’ll see).
2) Infrastructure Developments: Canada has abundant reserves, with some of the cleanest and lowest-cost natural gas in the world with a painful lack of export capacity. A number of pipeline and LNG export facilities are set to come online, incentivizing a production increase to fill that pipeline. To me, this is the most powerful reason why I believe Enterprise has much lower commodity risk and has been repeated by recent research put out by RBC on the prospects of NE BC natural gas outlook.
3) Tier 1 Client Book: Enterprise’s clients are some of the largest energy producers in North America, meaning they plan their development programs with a multi-year outlook that is less sensitive to short term price action. Further, many of its clients are actual providing the supply for LNG Canada (Sinopec, Petronas,
Market Downturn:
No doubt we are entering a period of uncertainty, with global liquidity being reduced and the risk of recession on the horizon. I think this should be viewed in two ways:
1) Operations: Looking back, more often than not a significant global recession is more likely to reduce the rate of growth in oil demand rather than actually reducing demand. Natural gas is mostly used for heating and electricity generation, making it relatively inelastic as well. Global GDP is also more evenly spread between OECD and non-OECD, meaning growing countries like India will be less responsive to tightening financial conditions.
2) Share Price: Enterprise is tracking towards a trailing 4x EV/EBITDA, with structural growth catalysts on the horizon (ie. pipelines) and excess cash flow available for buybacks. Even in a market panic, it is likely cash flows can continue to grow, providing continued support to the share price via buybacks.
3) Recent meltdown in energy markets had almost no impact on Enterprise share price and would suspect that increased buybacks would be there for support if share price were to slide further.
It is the risk-adjusted return with fundamentals to back it up that make Enterprise special within the micro-cap space.
Summary
1) Operating conditions look very strong for the company based on energy cycle and the foundation of new pipeline-related production increases in western Canada.
2) Enterprise is a pure-play on western Canada with major well-capitalized nat gas clients poised for growth.
3) Small size and cap structure provide potential for significant torque in share price.
4) Enterprise has debt flexibility such that they don’t need to dilute equity at these valuations if M&A opportunities arise.
5) Extremely profitable with 30%+ cash flow yield and optionality for buybacks or further investment in expanding equipment fleet for evolution power.
6) Significant selling pressure from large shareholder has now ended after tendering shares to treasury in January 2023.
7) A single large new shareholder has potential to re-rate the stock to base case of 6x EV/EBITDA multiple.
8) Equity re-rate and M&A could see this company become very large, very quickly – drawing further flows of capital to the name at sufficient scale or be a prime takeout candidate for PE.
Disclosure:
I own shares in Enterprise. This is not financial advise. Please do your own due diligence.
submitted by BadTakeBrian to pennystocks [link] [comments]


2023.03.24 23:54 hodsct59 Choices For Fair Grounds on March 25, 2023 Races 8-15

8th Race: Tom Benson Memorial Stakes --- Purse $100,000 --- 4 YO & Up F&M ---- 1 1/16-Mile Turf:
9) New Year's Eve (5-1) returns to racing after a 6 1/2-month break. She has been on the work tab to maintain her conditioning while she was on break. Looks ready to move into the elite class of fillies but may need one.
6) Dida (3-1) also returns from a 6-month freshening but has 12 recorded works since her return to training in early Jan.
3) Trail Ridge Road (12-1) finished 3rd in her last start, continues to work forwardly and trainer would like to get a black-type win for one of his homebred fillies. A perfect spot to achieve that goal as the most serious contenders are coming off breaks or cutting back too much in distance in one swoop. following the same path as the trainer's other trainee in here. Odds will likely drift up by post time.
8) She Can't Sing (9-2) took trainer 3 years of steadily sending this one out before she finally became a stakes winner early last year and added third more stakes wins, including a G3 on dirt before the year was over. She finished third in her only start this year, another G3 on dirt after grabbing the lead into the stretch but flatten out.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 3-6, $1 Tri Box 3-6-8, $.30 Super Box 3-6-8-9, $1 Super Key 3 with 6-8-9 with 6-8-9 with 6-8-9. Total Risks $29.20.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9th Race: New Orleans Classic S(G2) --- Purse $500,000 ---- 4 YO & Up --- 1 1/8 Mile:
2) Art Collector (8-5) has been trained by Mott for his last 9 starts and has banked more than $3M of his lifetime bankroll of $4M under his tutelage. Dam line has been one of America's best producing lines for several generation. Works since last suggests he will be tough to deny again. Top Choice.
4) Trafalgar (30-1) was claimed out of last start by trainer who does well with horses off claim in their first start, mostly by making minor equipment and step horse up in class one notch. However, this one is simply moving back into same class as he has been competing against since his two wins as a heavy favorite early in his career. In every one of his graded stakes tries, he has giving others an advantage in fitness and top race experience. Two works since he was claimed including a bullet work 10 days before scheduled start. Anything close to his M/L odds and I will gladly risk taking a shot with him to crash the board.
5) Rattle N Roll (10-1) was showboated by trainer with fast works when he should have been getting prepared and gaining experience to run in last year's Ky Derby and instead missed the cut. When he finally did get in top shape, he won three lesser stakes to add to the one that got him noticed as a 2 YO. Looks better prepared for his first start this year, though he may need a start to show his best form. His dam line has produced plenty of speedy type runners that excelled in top class, though he has shown a preference for running late. Can upset with his best race.
7) Mr Wireless (8-1) has finished 2nd in a pair of G3 tries this year. He has shown some ability throughout his career but is still seeking that breakthrough win. He will be making his first try at a G2 race but has two G3 wins to go along with his 2 G3 placings, so this is a logical next step up the ladder. His 5th dam, Summer Guest, won 4 top filly races as a 3 YO including the 1973 CCA Oaks and Alabama S, though none of them were graded then but grading was added the next year (1974 for filly races).
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 2-4, $1 Tri Box 2-4-5, $.30 Super Box 2-4-5-7, $1 Super Key 2 with 4-5-7 with 4-5-7 with 4-5-7. Total Risk $29.20.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10th Race: Muniz Memorial Classic S(G2) ---- Purse $300,000 --- 4 YO & Up --- 1 1/8 Mile Turf:
7) Another Mystery (6-1) is back to try again in this stake as he was no factor in last year's edition as an only speed wired the field and is also back. More front running speed looks to be signed up for this edition and an 8 pounds swing in weights from last year should tip his chances more his way.
4) English Tavern (12-1) raced last against the only speed who wired this race last year and cruised again. His two starts before that, he got the right setup but found the distance a little shorter than he really likes. If he gets another setup like those two races, which looks likely, and can stay out of trouble, he will blow by this field. Solid chance at an upset.
2) Rising Empire (20-1) was highly thought of as a 2 YO as his connections bid $700K to purchase him. So far, he has been a disappointment but 2 starts ago, they decided to give him a shot on grass, and he responded with a second and then a win. Sure, this is a big step up in class, but his works since indicates he might not be done yet. Could be he is finally realizing the potential that his connections saw in him when they risked so much money on him or he loves the grass. Maybe a risky proposition but he is dangerous if overlooked.
9) Risk Management (20-1) was claimed 3 races back by current connections for 80K. He won his last start in an O/C $40K NW2L6M race but his start just before that effort is the reason I feel he has a shot at a minor placing. On a yielding turf course that usually does not allow anyone to make up ground, he broke last but was rolling in the stretch though he failed to make up any ground on the three horses that sat close early, of which two are entered in this race, both 600K+ stakes winners.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 4-7, $1 Tri Box 2-4-7, $.20 Super Box 2-4-7-9, $.50 Super Key 7 with 2-4-9 with 2-4-9 with 2-4-9, $.50 Super 2-4-7 with 2-4-7 with 2-4-7 with 9. Total Risk $26.80.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11th Race: Fair Ground Oaks ---- Purse $400,000 --- 3 YO Fillies ---- 1 1/16 Mile:
I will pass on betting this race though I believe the outcome will be 5-3-2.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12th Race: Louisiana Derby --- Purse $1M ---- 3 YOs ---- 1 3/16 Mile:
5) Disarm (10-1) has made three starts with a win, a second and a third. His last start was his first start against winners and his first start in 6 months, he broke slowly, was rushed up early and then had no real help with the pace as the front runner set a moderate pace and cruised. This start, he will be the one that will play the catch me if you can game on his opponents. 5x5x5 to Fappiano.
11) Jace's Road (12-1) has made 5 starts with 2 wins and a third. His two bad races are tosses as it is pretty obvious, he did not like the kickback of dirt/mud on those sloppy tracks. 3rd dam produced Forest Secrets, winner of the 2001 G1 1M Acorn S and two other graded stakes at 9 furlongs, 4th dam produced Silverbulletday, fifth dam, Rokeby Venus, is the 4th dam of multiple G1 winner Arklow and 6th dam, All Beautiful, is also dam of Arts and Letters who won the 1969 Belmont S, foiling Majestic Prince's TC bid after finishing 2nd to that one in both the Ky Derby & Preakness S. 4x4 to Mr Prospector, 5x5 to Northern Dancer, 5x5x5 to Raise a Native. Also crosses 6x6x7 to Somethingroyal.
2) Instant Coffee (2-1) has done little wrong in his 3 wins in four lifetime starts. However, he shows a space of 28 days between his Lecomte win and his next work. Could be trainer had opted to pass the Risen Star and decided to work him up to the Louisiana Derby, but not as likely as trainer thought he came out of the Lecomte S, was tired longer than usual and required extra rest. He is now back to his usual spacing between works. I will be using caution with this one though. Complete outcross in his first 5 generations, but his 6th dam is a winning full sister to Affirmed.
1) Shoppers Revenge (12-1) has made 3 starts, bookending 2nd around a maiden win. He may not quite be ready to beat this type, but he is on the improve and likely to get these a battle. Biggest problem thus far is his tendency to break slowly but that will come with a little more experience. An easy work followed by two good works show his enthusiasm for racing has not yet falter. 4x4 to Narrate, 4x5x4 to Mr Prospector, 5x5 to Secretariat & Northern Dancer.
8) Single Ruler (15-1) has 1 win and one third in six starts. However, his last was his first start against winners in the G2 Risen Star, so connections, at least believes he will turn into a decent runner. He ran well considering he did not have the best of trips, but trainer tends to teach most of his trainees to run late as opposed to burning up energy too early in a race.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 5-11, $1 Tri Box 1-5-11, $.30 Super Box 1-5-8-11, $1 Super Key 5 with 1-8-11 with 1-8-11 with 1-8-11. Total Risks $29.20.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
13th Race: Maiden Special Weight --- Purse $75,000 ---- 3 YOs Louisiana Bred ---- 6 Furlongs:
10) Josie's Priority (12-1) First time starter. Brisnet shows trainer is 0-24 in the last two years with his first-time starters. This is a stat I normally pay little attention to, because every good trainer, jockey, owner, etc. goes on good streaks and bad streaks throughout their careers. This filly is working fast, is bred to be fast and has 2 stamina type 5F works that often separates first time starters from each other.
3x4 to Bright Candles, 4x4x5 to Mr Prospector, 4x5x4 to Northern Dancer.
3) Steauxlit (4-1) finished second in last start which was also her second start. Has bloodlines that is speedy and often wins early in their careers but spacing of workouts after last start is a concern. But it is not enough to throw out a horse completely because training at smaller tracks where trainers/owners have to ship from their farms to work and/or race is much different than larger tracks where owners that usually afford to pay for stalls at the track or training centers. 5x5x5 to Secretariat. The Speightstown angle.
8) Reddingandlee (15-1) has started twice and finished 3rd in his last start, but showed she has a late kick in both starts. Filly probably would like nothing more than to see an early speed duel where she is not chasing a lone front runner. Trainer is adding blinkers for this start, probably hoping it will help her focus and adds two works since her last start, a decent one which gave trainer what he was looking for and then a leg stretcher to maintain her fitness until race day. Win possibility increases greatly if early speed collapses. 4x3 to Mr Prospector, 5x5 to Northern Dancer.
5) Maliki Empire (5-1) started once and broke slow and last but was allowed to settle then asked to go nearing the turn for home and came running like a horse with some ability. No works since that effort but returns in 22 days. Trainer either believes that race took nothing out of her or risking that it didn't. Tough call but filly is well bred. 3x4 to Fappiano, 5x5 to Raise A Native. 2nd dam, Fara's Team, won the 1988 G1 7F Test S and 1988 G2 6F Prioress S.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 3-10, $1 Tri Box 3-8-10, $.30 Super Box 3-5-8-10, $1 Super Key 8 with 3-5-10 with 3-5-10 with 3-5-10. Total Risks $29.20. I know, my super key is different from other bets but is one of my "home run swing".
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 14: Allowance O/C $20K ---- Purse $75,000 ---- 4 YO & Up La Bred Fillies --- N/W 2 La Bred Allowance Races or N/W 3 races lifetime of any type (maiden races and claiming races for 15K or less not consider in allowances) or $20K claiming --- 6 Furlongs:
6) Hail State (20-1) has terrible looking form since he returned after a 5 1/2-month break last November. Trainer has laid him off for another two months, not to give him more rest but to get him back into his top shape. All horses are required to have a race or at least one work in the last 2 months to be eligible to race and he fulfills that require with a work on March 18 at Evangline Downs in 49 breezing, the 6th best work of 38 recorded at EvD on that day and at that distance. If he comes back in his best form, he will easily beat these. Others in here has to hope for an off day from others for their best chances while this one only needs his best race to get the job done. Value choice.
12) George Allen (12-1) went much too fast early in his last on a track that has been as dull as I have ever seen at this FG meet where no one at any distance has come close to any track record. The winner ran what is considered a fast time in a romp, but he was almost 3 full seconds of the track record. Since he is coming back in 24 days, trainer gave him on easy work 6 days out from scheduled start. The new horse on the block. Ready to roll.
7) Tambourine Star (15-1) comes off a win against N/W 2 lifetime La-Bred allowance foes and it usually makes no sense to end up in this spot other than a trainer gets to enter the horse without any chance of him getting claimed for a chance to win a much larger purse than normally afforded this type. Otherwise, he has a chance at a bigger purse than horse won for winning his allowance race against easier company for the most part. One fast 47 3/5 work 6 days before scheduled race signals trainer wants horse up closer to the early pace than he has been lately. BTW, Fara's Team, who I mention in the 13th race as 2nd dam of Maliki Empire (my 4th choice) is 3rd dam of Tambourine Star.
9) G'wildcat (4-1) was claimed two starts back in this condition type class while winning the race then re-claimed by previous trainer while racing in same class in last start. Trainer obviously thinks he had the horse fit enough to win again or he likely would have moved on. One bullet work from the gate and then an easy leg stretching breeze 8 days from scheduled start will have him sharp.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 6-12, $1 Tri Box 6-7-12, $.30 Super Box 6-7-9-12, $1 Super Key 6 with 7-9-12 with 7-9-12 with 7-9-12. Total Risks: $29.20.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 15: Maiden Special Weight --- Purse $75,000 --- 3 YO La-Bred Fillies --- 6 Furlongs:
2) Splitting Aces (20-1) has started twice and in both instances, she found a late kick well after the races had been decided. However, also before her last start especially, she did not have one work that should or could have indicated she was anywhere near a winning effort. Since her last start, she has one work since her last start in a 50 2/5 breezing six days before this scheduled start at the FG. She is well bred and will likely wake up very soon. Her sire, McCraken won a G2 and 2 G3 stakes races during his career, and her dam, Hallie's Dream, won 2 La-Bred stakes during her career. Broodmare sire, Pleasant Tap, was champion older horse in 1992 as a 5 YO but also finished 3rd in the 1990 Ky Derby. 5x5 to Blushing Groom & Buckpasser.
7) Lightening Mo (7-2) has started once and finished second after eyeing the pace battle early then going after the winner of that battle but could catch her and had to settle for second. One decent work followed by a leg stretching work 9 days before scheduled start to keep the filly happy until race day. 5x5 to Northern Dancer with Mr Prospector as the sire line and his son, Fappiano, as sire of 4th dam. Her 3rd dam, Freddie Frisson, is also dam of multiple G1 SW First Samurai.
8) R T's Cajun Lady (20-1) made one start last5 year at Evangeline Downs where she shot out of the gate, have to be straighten out, continued to lead to the turn, attempted to bore out again, and eventually saved second while no match for the easy winner. Likely just needed more time to mature and trainer gave her 5 months off before bringing her back in February and now has two works, both of which shows speed is still there. Hopefully, the greenness will be gone but won't know until race day. 3x4 to Mr Prospector.
6) Vivi Did It (8-1) is a first-time starter. Two of her last three works indicates she will be trying for the early lead, but I think her chances to win or wire this field if she had at least one five furlongs decent work. Often it is the difference between winning and just being a pace setter. 2x4 to More Than Ready, 4x5 to Seattle Slew.
My Risks $5 Ex Box 2-7, $1 Tri Box 2-7-8, $.30 Super Box 2-6-7-8, $1 Super Key 2 with 6-7-8 with 6-7-8 with 6-7-8. Total Risks: $29.20.
submitted by hodsct59 to horseracing [link] [comments]


2023.03.24 14:17 kaptain_carbon Shreddit's Top Demos of All Time (RESULTS & PRIMER)

Is This The Demovote?

Yes! We would like to thank everyone who voted in our DEMOVOTE which collected everyone's favorite demos. Just like our yearly Top Demo, EP, Split, Etc vote we do every year, the people who participate are fewer than our Top X votes. This is to be expected as someones favorite demos is more niche than favorite metal of any given year. This has given us an opportunity to do not only do a vote result but also make it as a primer on getting into demos. I would like to thank an_altar_of_plagues for not only writing up an intro for the questions "Why Demos?" but also making a separate primer for newcomers into the world of lofi madness. Use this as a way to advance your demo knowledge one space regardless of where you are.

Demo Dives and High Fives: A Shreddit Demo Primer

But Why Demos?

Love at First "BLEGH" (an_altar_of_plagues)
I avoided demos for a long time because I thought they were just poorly-recorded versions of tracks I could find on albums. Though I want to clown on my younger self for having such a FALSE and BURNED AND DIED opinion, it's an understandable thought. The lower fidelity of much of demo outside the mainstream bands is already a turn-off for many fans of music, and demos often amplify the ostensible loss of sound for something stereotyped as ephemeral "trveness". And when I want to listen to music, I want to listen to a lot of it - why turn on demos when so many of them are just a few minutes long anyway?
The first demo that had me think "hmm, there's something to this" was Abigor's Lux Devicta Est, released in 1993. At the time, I had exhausted all of Abigor's pre-reformation LPs, and I wanted more. With tentative steps I turned on the staticky opener to this demo, and from there the love affair was set. Demos became an avenue to explore not only a band's earlier or non-album material, but to learn more about broader scenes, influences, and msuic at-large. Over the last few years, exploring the depths of demos has become one of my primary music habits - I get a ton of love out of hearing bands puts ideas down on paper for no reason but the love of the craft. And when I think I've heard it all, there's always something weird and obfuscating that makes me excited all over again about my favorite genre of music.
Demos can be an intimidating area of metal to get into - but don't fret. The easiest way to start exploring demos is to look at the discographies of bands you already enjoy. Metallica, Darkthrone, and Morbid Angel are just three bands with important, influential, and just plain good-sounding demos for your pleasure. From there, check out bands' influences on the Metal Archives and see which names pop out. Lots of your favorite bands are as nerdy about metal as we are on this subreddit, and plenty of them are open about what's inspired them to make music.
Thanks for reading, and have an excellent time!
Mining For Ore (Kaptain Carbon)
When I started Tape Wyrm many years ago, I wanted to cover black and death metal demos that few people knew about. Part of this was the discovery process, so I could be the first one to tell someone else about a cool thing on the internet, but over time I enjoyed writing about bands that no one else was writing about. I also felt that negative reviews were mute anymore. That there was so much music, one could entirely immerse themselves in it and never have to write about things they didn't enjoy. Why spend time writing about a popular record you didn't like when there were 10 better ones no one has heard of? Moving from a music critic perspective to a music miner perspective was fun, since it also seemed like there was a culture of like-minded writers evolving into the space. So I began just listening to anything that was new and had a cool cover and developed my own compass on what would potentially be interesting. Though the landscape of music consumption has changed over the past decades, places like Bandcamp have become a field for anyone to interact with the music they want. With a small amount of gumption one could find things with little effort and be amazed almost daily.
There is a belief nearing a joke about demos being better than albums, as it captures the essence of a band before the inevitable commercialization of the sound. The strange thing is this idea could be as true as it could be false. Demos in earlier decades acted as demonstrations of talent, which were used as pitches for record contracts. For famous bands, demos were then released on compilation or box sets. When tape trading became a form of music dissemination, demos were passed around not only as potential projects that would yield future albums, but also as products themselves. Some of these demos would be from bands that would go on to be famous, while others were just from bands that would make these types of releases indefinitely. That means, while demos still exist today, they do not exist the same way they did in the past. There is no reason to have a demo for a record label, as that sort of relationship does not exist in the same way it did in the 70s and 80's. You make tapes for demos after you put your music on Bandcamp, Youtube, or Soundcloud and only if you have the financial means. Demos on tape today are a mark of established progress, which are sold to fans rather than given away to record labels. While the necessity of demos might have changed, the spiritual realm of the demo still exists as it did in past decades.
When you get into demos, and seeking out more of the same, you not only approach the entire history of music but its subterranean maintenance floor. You will be listening to lesser known releases from famous bands, as well as full releases from potentially unknown bands. You could be listening to releases by bands made in haste to pitch to record labels, or from bands who chose never to venture into larger production. For the band and its listeners, this realm of the demo is marked with a raw spirit that tries to chain it to a recorded release. It is a world where things are made in haste and with the intention to capture a moment in time. Listening and seeking out demos has given me a heavy metal hobby where my musical options has an almost infinite number of participants. It reminds me of the expanse of music where it is impossible to think there is nothing good coming out at any given time. There is a torrent of music and we cant possibly have the time to drink it all.

First Circle: Essential / Most Popular Demos of All Time

1. Rippikoulu - Musta Seremonia [Finland, Death/Doom] (1993) 14
Well, here it is. One of the most famous, if not the most famous death metal demo of all time comes from a Finland -- a place of seemingly eternal misery and poetry. When people talk Finnish death, Rippikoulu is mentioned alongside Demilich, Abhorrence, Demigod, and like three other entries in the below list. When people talk about Finnish death, they talk this 31 minute release. There is little else save for the first demo and most certainly not their 2014 EP. Musta Seremonia is an iconic release in the death/doom genre and made even more canonical with the 1798 painting The Vision of the White Horse by Philip James De Loutherbourg showing Death and Famine riding after the breaking of the first two seals in the end times. If you don't believe me look at the cover and listen to this part specifically for the wrestling entrance song for Death and Famine.
2. Poison - Into the Abyss [Germany, Death / Thrash] (1987) 13
Poison, despite having the same name as another more popular band, has an interesting backstory which is perhaps the fate of many bands of the same era. Poison's original 1987 demo led to the band being featured on a Roadrunner compilation which then led to a contract stipulation that they would accept no offers from other labels in a given time period. During that time, Poison dissolved thus ending an extremely short existence. Into the Abyss (1993) is a remastered release of the original 1987 demo and seems to be also celebrated by fans as being apart of a short tragic history of a band that never was. Perhaps this band would go onto do great things but this is a time when a demo is the only living artifact of a band that could have been.
3. Necrovore - Divus De Mortuus [US, Death] (1987) 13
Necrovore exists as two demos. This one and Demo 1988. Perhaps the most established thing about this band is the logo which seems to take up most of the visual real estate on the releases. Necrovore existed for 3 years and their members went on to do projects that were as obscure but less popular than Necrovore. This was a moment in time for this band and I honestly am baffled this exists. Texas in the 1980's does not seem like a time for a furious death / black band to exist let alone make a demo that has no right to being this good.
4. Damaar - Triumph Through Spears of Sacrilege [Lebanon, Black/ Death] (2007) 12
Damaar is perhaps one of the more recent additions in this list and this act comes with a couple of interesting bullet points or bullet belt points. The first is the band being from Lebanon and with some strong opinions on organized religion. The second is a sound that feels like machine gun fired in a small closet. Triumph Through Spears of Sacrilege is a furious explosion in the tradition of Revenge, Blasphemy, and any other band that wears bullet belts for fashion. This band is for a discerning fan who enjoys being steamrolled by sound.
5. Enslaved - Yggdrasill [Norway, Black] (1992) 10
This is interesting since you can listen to the new record from Enslaved in 2023 and then go back 31 years and see where it all started. If I were to imagine Enslaved I would picture some giant tree perhaps sacred in Norse Cosmology and this demo being at the very root before branching out into various worlds. If you are at all familiar with Enslaved's work you are aware they started in black metal before experimenting with progressive black and what I suspect is hallucinogens. This is before all of that and Yggdrasill sounds like the cover of a photocopied lightning bolt which adorns the cover. You also get an early example of dungeon synth / neoclassical with the track "Resound Of Gjallarhorn" which doesn't come with the catalyst until you run Grasp of Avarice.
6. Nirvana 2002 - Disembodied Spirits [Sweden, Death] (1990) 10
There is much lore surrounding this Swedish band and their name as the 2002 was supposedly added to not confuse themselves with the American band who just released their debut on SubPop. I am just confused why this Swedish band would make the change for another band that had yet to become established. Perhaps premonition? In any case we all know this band as "not that Nirvana" but if you are at all familiar with death metal, you know Nirvana 2002 spoken in the same sentence as Entombed, Dismember, and Nihilist. This is Swedish death metal that might not be as well known as the other band with the name but within the right community they are just as legendary.
7. Metallica - No Life 'Til Leather [US, Thrash] (1982) 9
We start to dive into the obscure acts now with a demo from a little known band that went onto produce nothing of note. Metallica demo is a prime example of demo turned album as all songs in the 1982 demo would appear on their 1983 debut (minus the lyric changes for The Mechanix) . No Life 'Til Leather was an example of the band shipping their sound to interested parties before being picked up by Megaforce Records one year later. For anyone interested in Metallica lore, this is the demo Mustaine played on before entering into a career about complaining about being in the band and giving ammunition to the one person who said Metallica died after Mustaine left (probably Mustaine himself).
8. Timeghoul - Tumultuous Travelings [US, Death] (1992) 9
I am not certain, but I feel everyone's first demo is from Timeghoul. I am almost positive. Timeghoul, for the longest time, existed only known to the few people who traveled in the catacombs of death metal demos and those who personally knew the band. This changed in 2012 with the release of the first two demos as a compilation from Dark Descent. Suddenly, everyone and their grandmothers knew about this death metal band (not really). It is hard not to understand why Timeghoul made such an impact as the band made protracted epics about science fiction and fantasy combining the lyrics with a sound which ripped the fabric of reality. I laugh still to this day that Timghoul perhaps has more attention and success now as an internet band than when they were a band for those few short years.
9. Stone Dagger - Stone Dagger [US, Heavy] (2013) 9
Oh cool, this must be one of those new heavy metal bands and in no way a mixture of bands that loop in traditional metal and near raw black metal. No. Stone Dagger might be easier to understand if you don't look at the members. Sure there are some easy connections like Magic Circle and Sumerlands. Then you have members who were also in the death doom act Innumerable Forms as well as others who were the lead in the black metal act Torture Chain. Also there is Pagan Altar thrown in there. The sound of Stone Dagger is not what you would expect from its members but few care since in that confusion lies a demo which is skilled and eternally impactful.
10. Tormentor - Anno Domini [Hungary, Black] (1989) 9
Do you know how many bands have the name Tormentor? I do. 21. Tormentor for the longest time existed as this Eastern European black metal band that made demos and a live album with misrepresented covers of Destruction songs as Bathory covers. (I do find it interesting that Destruction was that big of a deal for a band to be covering their song "Total Desaster" a few years later.) If any of the bands I just mentioned are of interest to you then Tormentor should be apart of your daily diet. Raw, unflinching, and a complete fucking mess, Tormentor lives to be a problem. Anno Domini is also noted for being listed as a demo despite it being 38 minutes long. I don't know what they were intending on doing with this outside of being exciting to internet dorks 30 years later.
11. Blasphemy - Blood Upon the Altar [Canada, Black / Death] (1989) 9
"Added to the second full-length Gods of War to compensate for the album's overly short running time." Alright what do we do this album is only 20 minutes? I don't know just put our demo on there who gives a fuck? Sometimes the complete lack of caring is charming for a band like Blasphemy. For anyone not familiar with the band you can honestly start at their albums or this one it doesn't matter as the production sounds like gravel and barbell drops after a sick deadlift. You either enjoy Blasphemy or you haven't been bullied to enjoy Blasphemy more.
12. Abhorrence - Vulgar Necrolatry [Finland, Death] (1990) 8
We are back in Finland which should be a place you visit if interested in death metal. Yeah, sure Sweden has its history but the true Sweden is Finland. Please don't DM me it was a joke. Abhorrence does not exist in full length form. Demos, EPs, Splits and compilations are the realm of this band and to be honest they could not be anywhere else. Something this gross and unhinged is best experienced in 15 minute terror sessions. Vulgar Necrolatry also has the pleasure of being entirely hand drawn for the cover and what it looks like done on a bumpy bus.
13. Morbid Angel - Thy Kingdom Come [US, Death] (1987) 7
Before the now famous release of Altars of Madness (1989), Morbid Angel would have four demos. Three of these would feature Mike Browning who was creating Nocturnus as the same time. Thy Kingdom Come does not have Browning rather Wayne Hartsell who was a member from 1986 to 1988 and only played on this demo. I do not know why and where Browning was at this time but I think I would have to read books to find out. Thy Kingdom Come, outside of the granular details, is one instance I prefer the muted sounds of the demo over the followup album. Morbid Angel is not lacking in energy, in any capacity though on Thy Kingdom Come, the death metal set in a blender sound feels more palatable on this early demo.
14. Hellhammer - Satanic Rites [Switzerland, Speed / Thrash / Black] (1983) 7
If Hellhammer has given us anything, It is demo and EP covers that go great on battlejackets. Satanic Rites (1983) and Apocolyptic Raids (1984) are the core of the Hellhammer universe and the place where most of these people with jackets travel to for pilgrimage. To know this band you should listen to both releases before moving onto Celtic Frost and inevitably sewing on a patch to your battle jacket. Its fine, they are cool and so are you.
15. At the Gates - Gardens of Grief [Sweden, Melodic Death] (1991) 7
"The band was called The Dwellers at the Gates of Silent Memory (named after a Fields of a Nephilim song) for about a week before the members decided to shorten it." What the fuck, am I just learning this now? That is how they shortened it? For anyone unfamiliar with the early work of At The Gates before their breakouts Terminal Spirit Disease (1994) and Slaughter of the Soul (1995), they were rougher death metal. This is also an instance where you are going to have to temper your expectation as the foundation which would bring them fame is still present in their demo and debut The Red in the Sky Is Ours (1992). Gardens of Grief is a moment in history everyone should be aware of and I do wish they didnt shorten their name as it sounds like a post rock band.
16. Timeghoul - Panaramic Twilight [US, Death] (1994) 6
Well this is awkward. I literally just talked about this band and said everything I wanted to. For anyone curious, the cover for this demo, which you probably have seen comes from the most famous of metal album cover designers Gustave Dore. This one in particular is from the 1845 illustration from Edgar Allen Poe's Raven. The illustration is called ", Death Depicted as the Grim Reaper on Top of the Moon" which I think is suitable for a band like Timeghoul. Again, Dore continues to be the greatest artist everyone steals from to make metal album covers.
17. Nihilist - Only Shreds Remain [Sweden, Death] (1989) 6
See, I'm just joking about Sweden. If you were looking for a timeline of this band it goes Brainwarp > Nihilist> Entombed. Nihilist only really existed for two years but judging by the way you see that logo almost everywhere and referenced in many places, you can assume they left a last impression. I am unsure which came first, the respect for Entombed or the discovery of Nihilist. Regardless of where it started everyone should be required to listen to at least the cursory works of Nihilist, Entombed, Unleashed, and Morbid which all make up this crusty web of Swedish death
18. Catacomb - In the Maze of Kadath [France, Death] (1993) 6
LISTEN TO THAT EARLY DUNGEON SYNTH INTRO! Okay, so up until two days from now, Catacomb exists as just this demo. Not to sday Morbid Attraction (1991) or The Lurker at the Threshold (1992) were not appreciated but In The Maze of Kadath is the one which brought this band enough underground success to last them 30 years. I might be wrong but I think the discovery of Catacomb happened after the invention of the internet as the label which released the original demo has In The Maze of Kadath as their only release. You can also buy one of of the copies from the manager.. Who knew Lovecraftian death metal would be so appreciated by people on the internet years later?
19. Whetstone - Ancient Metal [Germany, Heavy / Speed] (1988) 5
I don't know if this slaps despite the band picture or because of it.. Outside of this demo, some of the members went onto another heavy metal act called The Immortal before disbanding after two demos. "The band called their style "Ancient Metal". Okay, well that certainly didn't stick. How about heavy/speed similar to early Blind Guardian? Sounds great.
20. Death Strike - Fuckin' Death (1985) 5
The original Fuckin' Death demo would be turned into the first four tracks on Fuckin' Death (1991) released by Nuclear Blast. Again this is an example of a demo as proof of concept for an eventual album. They didn't even change the name. Fuckin' Death (1991) would eventually go onto to be the release everyone knows and its probably no due to the fact they are lounging on a car like some stoner rock band. It is almost as if this band doesnt give a fuck about anything and is using the ferocity of punk to fuel their death metal.
21. Hades - Alone Walkyng [Norway, Black / Viking] (1993) 5
"Jørn Inge Tunsberg was convicted for Åsane church arson on Christmas Eve of 1992 along with Varg Vikernes and spent 2 years in prison." Oh its one of those bands. I am sure Hades gained some sort of cult popularity due to the actions of one member which is kinda of a shame since the music contained in this demo is top notch. Far cleaner than what one would expect from an early early 90's Norwegian black demo which continues to add to the complexity of this release.
22. Sadistic Intent - Conflict Within [US, Death] (1989) 5
What the fuck is going on with this cover? One of the funniest things about Sadistic Intent is that in 2007 most of the band reformed Possessed and existed as Possessed for a few years. Sure why not? You have seen the logo for Sadistic Intent on a jacket and it is usually worn by the craziest looking person at the metal show. This should be taken as a warning since they are looking for the pit to form and to claim dominion on the upper echelons of the crowd. It is understandable because outside the spasms of manic hyper activity, this band throws some nasty riffs which are probably covered in bacteria.
23. Demigod - Unholy Domain [Finland, Death] (1991) 5
LISTEN TO THAT DUNGEON SYNTH INTRO. Holy shit now its Demigod! This is the best day ever! Seriously if you have never listened to Demigod before go listen to Slumber of Sullen Eyes (1992) and then when you are done listen to this demo. If you did step one, move to step two. I have a personal connection with Demigod as they are some of the few bands that make me stop what I'm doing to absorb riffs at my computer.
24. Treblinka - Crawling in Vomits [Sweden, Death / Black] (1988) 5
This sounds terrible but you know, it might have been apart of the grand design. Treblinka exists as one of those legacy bands you might see reformed for a one off show or maybe not since the members dont want anything to do with each other. Treblinka eventually turned into Tiamat and all members participated on the Sumerian Cry (1991) demo before all not doing that anymore. I am not going to recommend Crawling in Vomits as your first dive into demos or maybe I will because you know it could be apart of the whole design.
25. Emperor - Wrath of the Tyrant (1992) 5
LISTEN TO THAT DUNGEON SYNTH INTRO. Well, no wonder, Mortiis is on here. I am not going to get into the labyrinth of release differences between this demo as it exists in multiple versions, fake versions and compilations. Somewhere in Norway the band Emperor recorded their demo on "on bad equipment (4 tracker) during 8-9 & 11 May '92."You will most certainly come across Emperor in your heavy metal travels and this demo is less important in terms of the music than it is for its historical importance. This is also true since the Emperor (1993) EP was released a year later and has the now iconic (Also Dore) cover of Death on a Pale Horse.

Second Circle: More Niche Demos Worthy of Discovery

26 Lucifer's Hammer - The Burning Church (1994) 4
27 Virtue - We Stand to Fight (2013) 4
28 Worship - Last Tape Before Doomsday (1999) 4
29 Armoured Angel - Communion (1990) 4
30 Tomb Mold - The Bottomless Perdition (2016) 4
31 Pagan Altar - Pagan Altar (1982) 4
32 Iron Maiden - The Soundhouse Tapes (1979) 4
33 Demolition Hammer - Necrology (1989) 4
34 Baxaxaxa - Hellfire (1992) 4
35 Hellhammer - Triumph of Death (1983) 4
36 Bog Body - Through the Burial Bog (2018) 3
37 Xysma - Swarming of the Maggots (1989) 3
38 Paradise Lost - Frozen Illusion (1989) 3
39 Possessed - Death Metal (1984) 3
40 Nihilist - Premature Autopsy (1988) 3
41 Cromlech - ...And Darkness Fell (1996) 3
42 Varathron - Genesis of Apocryphal Desire (1990) 3
43 Vader - Morbid Reich (1990) 3
44 Morbid - December Moon (1987) 3
45 Destruction - Bestial Invasion of Hell (1984) 3
46 Sabbat - Sabbatical Demon (1990) 3
47 Paysage d'Hiver - Paysage d'Hiver (1999) 3
48 Mercyful Fate - Burning the Cross (1981) 3
49 Terminal Death - Faces of Death (1985) 2
50 Mefisto - The Puzzle (1986) 2
51 Angel Witch - 1978 Demo (1978) 2
52 Messiah in the Abyss - Noumenon (2022) 2
53 Spirit Possession - 2020 Demo (2020) 2
54 Megadeth - Last Rites (1984) 2
55 Apollo Ra - Ra Pariah (1989) 2
56 Sijjin - Angel of the Eastern Gate (2019) 2
57 Exorcist - Voices From the Graves (1987) 2
58 Törr - Witchhammer (1987) 2
59 Afterbirth - Psychopathic Embryotomy (1994) 2
60 Abhorer - Rumpus of the Undead (1989) 2
61 Mefisto - Megalomania (1986) 2
62 As Sahar - Meditation Embun Pagi (1995) 2
63 Slaughter Lord - Taste of Blood (1987) 2
64 Imprecation - Ceremony of the Nine Angles (1992) 2
65 Satan - Into the Fire (1982) 2
66 Sanctus - Thy Disciples (1982) 2
67 Bekëth Nexëhmü - De Svarta Riterna (2013) 2
68 Dark Tranquillity - Trail of Life Decayed (1991) 2
69 Moonsorrow - Tämä Ikuinen Talvi (1999) 2
70 Ethereal Shroud - AbsolutionEmptiness (2013) 2
71 Paysage d'Hiver - Steineiche(1998) 2
72 Deranged - Place of Torment (1989) 2
73 Arnaut Pavle - Arnaut Pavle (2013) 2
74 Rhinocervs - RH-07 (2011) 2
75 Paysage d'Hiver - Kristall & Isa (2000) 2
76 Crematory - Wrath From the Unknown (1991) 2
77 Hell - Hell (1982) 2
78 Twisted Tower Dire - Triumphing True Metal (1997) 2
79 Slaughter - Surrender or Die (1985) 2
80 Eucharist - Demo 1 (1992) 2
81 Cruciamentum - Convocation of Crawling Chaos (2009) 2
82 Dismember - Reborn in Blasphemy (1990) 2

Third Circle: Wow You Are Still Here? You Absolute Maniac

83 Valefar - Frigus Ex Tenebris Venit (1995) 1
84 Pan.Thy.Monium - .....Dawn (1990) 1
85 Morbid Fear - Darkest Age (1990) 1
86 Detonátor - Demo - 1990 (1990) 1
87 Armoured Angel - McMXCV Demo (1995) 1
88 Manowar - Demo '81 (1981) 1
89 Venom - Demon (1980) 1
90 Reversed - Promo 2022 (2022) 1
91 Kaldeket - Vitiate (2021) 1
92 Dripping Hörror - Waiting for the Drip (2020) 1
93 Pyre of Black Roses - Demo I (2021) 1
94 Hinthial - :𐌀𐌍𐌔𐌀𐌓: (2021) 1
95 Nona Decima Morta - Demo (2020) 1
96 Skorbvstr - Hanshi (2022) 1
97 Venymysgourvleydh - Subterranean Pyre (2021) 1
98 Dawn - Apparition (1993) 1
99 Impurity - The Impurity Temple (1989) 1
100 Merciless Death - Holocaust (1992) 1
101 Nuctemeron - The Unxpected (1988) 1
102 Interment - Where Death Will Increase (1991) 1
103 Imperator - Eternal Might (1988) 1
104 Slaughter - Bloody Karnage (1984) 1
105 Ljosazabojstwa - Staražytnaje Licha (2015) 1
106 Amon - Call the Master! (1992) 1
107 Fantom - Lucifer Jelenj Meg! (1987) 1
108 Slaugther Lord - Thrash 'Til Death 86-87 (2000) 1
109 Asgard - Cachtická Pani Hrabenka Bathory (1995) 1
110 Ripping Corpse - Death Warmed Over (1987) 1
111 Sorcerer - Sorcerer (1989) 1
112 Gorement - Obsequies... (1991) 1
113 Sentenced - Rotting Ways to Misery (1991) 1
114 Funebrarum - Triumphant Ascent (2000) 1
115 Bolt Thrower - Concession of Pain (1987) 1
116 Rottrevore - The Epitome of Pantalgia (1990) 1
117 Crematory - The Exordium (1990) 1
118 Mortify - The Calm Beyond... (1993) 1
119 Death - Death by Metal (1984) 1
120 Eructation - Demo #1 (1992) 1
121 Transgressor - Twisting Brochus (1990) 1
122 Sarcasm - A Touch of the Burning Red Sunset (1994) 1
123 Invocator - Alterations (1989) 1
124 Crucifix - Barriers (1992) 1
125 Adversary - Remains of an Art Forgotten (1991) 1
126 Agonized - Gods... (1991) 1
127 Ebwa - Savagery of Bawo (1998) 1
128 F.C.D.N. Tormentor - Demonic (1986) 1
129 Terrorizer - Nightmares (1987) 1
130 Jaguar - 6 Track Demo (1980) 1
131 Demon Bitch - Demon Bitch (2012) 1
132 Vixen - The Works (2004) 1
133 Eternal Champion - The Last King of Pictdom (2013) 1
134 Obscure Evil - Midnight Forces (2016) 1
135 Devil - Magister Mundi Xum (2010) 1
136 Ageless Wisdom - Demo '90 (1990) 1
137 Torture Chain - Mountains of Hate (2009) 1
138 Blitzkrieg - Demo Tape (1980) 1
139 Obsequiae - Obsequiae (2009) 1
140 Ras Algethi - Oblita Divinitas (1993) 1
141 Cosmic Church - Syysauringon Vihkimys (2012) 1
142 Fall of the Leafe - Storm of the Autumnfall (1996) 1
143 Mourning Beloveth - Autumnal Fires (1998) 1
144 Departure Chandelier - The Black Crest of Death, the Gold Wreath of War (2011) 1
145 Thergothon - Fhtagn-Nagh Yog-Sothoth (1991) 1
146 Tomb Mold - Cryptic Transmissions (2017) 1
147 Agalloch - From Which of This Oak (1997) 1
148 Behemoth - ...From the Pagan Vastlands (1994) 1
149 Blaspherian - Summoning of Infernal Hordes (2006) 1
150 Excarnated Entity - Stillborn in Ash (2019) 1
151 Mephitic Corpse - Immense Thickening Vomit (2019) 1
152 Total Isolation - Winfield (2019) 1
153 Rotted - Dying to Rot (2019) 1
154 Grotesque Infection - Consumption of Human Feces (1992) 1
155 Mortiferum - Altar of Decay (2017) 1
156 Cryptopsy - Ungentle Exhumation (1993) 1
157 Ares Kingdom - Ares Kingdom (1989) 1
158 Paysage D’hiver - Kerker (1999) 1
159 Xasthur - A Gate Through Bloodstained Mirrors (2001) 1
160 Darkthrone - Land of Frost (1988) 1
161 Spiral Staircase - S/T (2017) 1
162 Drowning the Light - Dark Winter Depression (2003) 1
163 Beherit - Demonomancy (1990) 1
164 Viridescent Funeral - Verdant Kingdoms (2022) 1
165 Svartidauði - Those Who Crawl and Slither Shall Again Inherit the Earth (2010) 1
166 Veitsi - Dignity & Honor (2022) 1
167 Otyg - Bergtagen (1995) 1
168 Isengard - Vandreren (1993/2022) 1
169 Tomhet - Purpureargotamiceps (2007) 1
170 Panphage - Nordlandets Dödsande (2011) 1
171 Arckanum - Trulen (1994) 1
172 Vlad Tepes - Dans Notre Chute... (1995) 1
173 Voivod - To the Death!... (1984) 1
174 Demilich - The Four Instructive Tales... Of Decomposition (1991) 1
175 Axeman - Arrive (2010) 1
176 Moonblood - Dusk Woerot (2002) 1
177 Baphomet - Children of Doom (1987) 1
178 Leviathan - Black Metal, White Devil (2002) 1
179 Nakkeknaekker - Krig (Demo) (2021) 1
180 The Suns Journey Through the Night - Demo II (2021) 1
181 Temple Ash - I (2018) 1
182 Paysage d'Hiver - Das Tor (2013) 1
183 Clairvoyance - Demo (2020) 1
184 Tomb Mold - The Moulting (2016) 1
185 Tomb Mold - Aperture of Body (2022) 1
186 Pendraig - Demo Tracks (2019-2020) (2021) 1
187 Ekranoplan - Demo (2018) 1
188 Sedimentim - Demo (2019) 1
189 Xatatax - Demo 2014 (2014) 1
190 Ethereal Shroid - Lanterns (2020) 1
191 War Cry - Trilogy of Terror (1983) 1
192 Hirax - Demo 1984 (1984) 1
193 Zemial - Necrolatry (1997) 1
194 Sindrome - Into the Halls of Extermination (1987) 1
195 Satan - The First Demo (1981) 1
196 Witchslayer - '83 Demo (1983) 1
197 Frigid Bich - Demo (1984) 1
198 Fatal Agent - Demo-Lition(2017) 1
199 Virtue - Fools Gold(1987) 1
200 Cryptic - Cryptic '89(1989) 1
201 Aspiration - Visions of Reality(1993) 1
202 …and Oceans - Mare Liberum(1998) 1
203 Glacier - Ready for Battle(1984) 1
204 Coroner - Death Cult(1986) 1
205 Belial - Gods of the Pit(1991) 1
206 Mutilated - Psychodeath Lunatics(1988) 1
207 Nomicon - De Rerum Natura(1992) 1
208 Sacro - Yo Voy a Pelear (1986) 1
209 Communion - Black Metal Dagger Demo Rehearsal (2015) 1
210 Chastain - Demo '84 (1984) 1
211 Storm Queen - Demo 1 - The BBC Studio Sessions (1980) 1
212 Deep Machine - Demo '80 (1980) 1
213 White Medal - Yorkshire Steel (2012) 1
214 Satan's Blade - Curse of the Blade (2015) 1
215 Cirith Ungol - Cirith Ungol (1979) 1
216 Jonah Quizz - Demo 1980 (1980) 1
217 Slayer - Demo (1982) 1
218 Predatory Light - MMXIV (2014) 1
219 Syöpä - Beneath Lucifer's Eye (2005) 1
220 Thresher - Totally Possessed (1989) 1
221 Trouble - 1983 Demo (1983) 1
222 Trouble - 1982 Demo (1982) 1
223 Antestor - Kongsblod (1987) 1
224 Apostle - Apostle (1984) 1
225 Cross - Metal From Above (1987) 1
226 Septicflesh - Forgotten Path (1991) 1
227 Fatal - Soul Burns (1989) 1
228 Amorphis - Disment of Soul (1991) 1
229 Kostnateni - Konec Je Vsude (2018) 1
230 Borrowed Time - Demo 2010 (2010) 1
231 Goatlord - Sodomize the Goat (1988) 1
232 Primitive Warfare - Primitive Warfare (2019) 1
233 Carcass - Flesh Ripping Sonic Torment (1987) 1
234 Mütiilation - Black Imperial Blood (Travel) (1994) 1
235 Reclusiam - Reclusiam (2004) 1
236 Sentenced - Journey to Pohjola (1992) 1
237 Cathedral - In Memorium (1990) 1
238 Evoken - Shades of Night Descending (1994) 1
239 Repulsion - Slaughter of the Innocent (1986) 1
240 Avernus - Sadness (1994) 1
241 Katatonia - Jhva Elohim Meth (1992) 1
242 Vektor - Hunger for Violence (2007) 1
243 Mournful Congregation - An Epic Dream of Desire (1995) 1
244 Entombed - But Life Goes on (1989) 1
245 Darkthrone - Cromlech (1989) 1
246 Reputdeath - Dissecting Goryfication (2022) 1
247 Encumber - Silent Witness of Past (1998) 1
248 Gates of Ishtar - Seasons of Frost (1995) 1
249 Cyanotic - The Chasm Within (1992) 1
250 Ablaze My Sorrow - Ablaze My Sorrow (1995) 1
251 Centinex - Under the Blackened Sky (1993) 1
252 Dismember - Last Blasphemies (1989) 1
253 Mork Gryning - Demo '94 (1994) 1
254 Glacier - Demo Tape (1988) 1
255 My Dying Bride - Towards the Sinister (1991) 1
256 Nuclear Winter - Abomination Virginborn (2003) 1
257 Amon - Sacrificial (1989) 1
258 Cynic - Demo (1991) 1
259 Arcane Necrosis - Arcane Necrosis (2006) 1
260 Grand Belial's Key - Goat of a Thousand Young (1992) 1
261 Gontyna Kry - Welowie (1997) 1
262 Graveland - The Celtic Winter (1994) 1
263 Vlad Tepes - War Funeral March (1994) 1
264 Marduk - Fuck Me Jesus (1991) 1
265 Black Crucifixioin - The Fallen One of Flames (1995) 1
266 Moonblood - The Winter Falls Over the Land (1995) 1
267 Poison - Bestial Death (1985) 1
268 Powervice - Behold the Hand of Glory (2005) 1
269 Mütiilation - Destroy Your Life for Satan (2008) 1
270 Nokturnal Mortum - Lunar Poetry (1996) 1
271 Funebre - Demo '90 (1990) 1
272 Rotting Christ - Satanas Tedeum (1989) 1
273 Vader - Necrolust (1989) 1
274 Desaster - Lost in the Ages (1994) 1 275 Death - Mutilation (1986) 1
276 Thou Art Lord - The Cult of the Horned One (1993) 1
277 Primordial - Dark Romanticism... Sorrow's Bitter Harvest... (1993) 1
278 Endlichkeit - Endlichkeit IX (2015) 1
279 Paysage d'Hiver - Schattengang (1998) 1
280 Endlichkeit - Endlichkeit VI-VIII (2014) 1
281 Untitled - Untitled 1
282 Helloween - Death Metal Demo (1984) 1
283 Dream Theater - The ATCO Demos (2002) 1
284 Stormbringer - Stealer of Souls (1993) 1
285 Elfspell - The River Giant Rises (2016) 1
286 Firestorm - Siege by Fire (1999) 1
287 Tabernacle - Terror in Thrace (2021) 1
288 Sauron - Demo (1984) 1
289 The Mob - Demo (1982) 1
290 Moonshade - Lost in a Nightmare (1998) 1
291 Thundercross - Land of Immortals (1994) 1
292 Solar Temple - Rays of Brilliance (2017) 1
293 Nimbifer - Demo I (2019) 1
294 Intestine Baalism - The Energumenus (1995) 1
295 Vothana - Vua Quang Trung - Demo IV - (2006) 1
296 420 - Reality (1998) 1
297 Vlad Tepes - Celtic Poetry (1994) 1
298 Blood Spill - Demo (1988) 1
299 Aeon - Clean Hand of the Eternal Gods (1995) 1
300 Vaktal - Vitriolic Revolt (2021) 1
301 Benighted - World of Nothingness (2001) 1
302 Winter Bestowed - Within My Labyrinthine Heart (2001) 1
303 Deaf Auditorium - Season of Evil (2002) 1
submitted by kaptain_carbon to Metal [link] [comments]


2023.03.24 13:42 UltimateTraders 3/24/2023 Daily Plays In SYF and NWBI may get 1 more long and wait, I may bid on 1-2 puts, market isnt sure to rally or to fall, when it is obvious news is very bad, but will crush bulls and bears with the "chop" trend is down, but the sideways move is bad for options I am up finally on MDGL

Good morning everyone. I fear that we may slowly decline and wont have a solid direction until earnings in 3-4 weeks. That is because we keep getting hit with bad news and the market cherry picks, finds some reason, or way to rally. When the market rallies on bad news, I don’t want any piece of that. I know better, I do not want to get caught holding the bag. I would much rather when the market finally gives up and falls decide to pile on puts like last year. OctobeNovember I was having a field day with close to 20 puts and trading in and out of 3-5 puts a day. At the moment I have about 5-6 puts because I am losing as I wrote, running out of time. I have 1 call RNG that I am losing on. I don’t want to commit capital in shares of anything unless it has a super low PE, makes cash or pays me to HODL. This is a difficult market to trade. Anytime when the market acts opposite of reality it is hard to make moves. Remember, from May of 2020 thru the end of 2021 we did not have 1 single correction in the Nasdaq or the Sp500. [10% drop] We basically went straight up for 20 months, which gave everyone the false narrative, that everyone was a genius! That the stock market only goes up. In 2022 the market ended down but there were many furious rallies. In 2023, so far, the market is up from January 1st, we have had 3 months already, with bad news and we are still up on the year…
In 2022 when we had bear market rallies, they would last several weeks, not several months..
Which kills your calls, kills your puts… and if you buy shares of something, it is committed capital for some time. We do have CPI April 12th, but I don’t know if that is what it takes for the market to wake up to bad news. I expect that CPI to be near 5.7-5.8. It is pretty much a given that Powell will raise rates in May, so that CPI shouldn’t be the deciding factor on the market… Earnings….. 1st quarter earnings 3rd week of April should be the wake up call…. Should be
Remember the fourth quarter of 2022 had misses from giants! [You must beat top and bottom! Not just 1!]
MSFT AMZN AAPL GOOG NFLX META ADBE GS SNAP HD
And these are just 10!
Some of these companies just missed slightly, but remember in 2021 these companies were smashing earnings. Growing sales at 20% and earnings at 10%... NFLX and META had a decline in earnings by 50-90%, sales flat! These are alarming things that you must pay attention to…
These misses and the earnings calls, give me the confirmation that 1st quarter earnings are likely to be bad. It is only when, companies flatten the earnings decline, increase sales that I start seeing an upswing in data… No, I don’t view NVDA beat of top and bottom line as a good sign. Analysts had lowered estimates, notice the 30% drop in sales and 50% drop in earnings year over year… I am not a rookie, go fool someone else. Those NVDA earnings were very bad, pathetic actually. But Chat GPT and AI stuff is hot this year. EV was so hot in 2021 and everyone was home so we had MULN NKLA RIDE WKHS and other trash raising cash from retail, cant blame anyone for selling to suckers….
I am no sucker! So I will wait till the market matches reality. I don’t need to make every trade, even in a tough 2022 I was up 25%. I am probably even or up less than 5% in 2023 but this is not the environment to trade. We need to know when to trade and when to be patient. In 2020, I was up 300% that was the most since the 90s! In 2021 I was up near 120% which was the most since the mid 2000s. Those returns, when you trade safely, is not normal! I would say normal is near 50% a year, if you do this well. Naturally, if the market takes flight like 2020/2021 and you have 20 months of straight up, you take advantage…..Well the tables have turned.
I bought NWBI a bank with PE near 10 and dividend yield near 6%. I bought SYF decent earnings, not great, but decent, PE ratio under 5, a credit card company. I am long 2023 like 5 stocks! I am down on CRK ORC CVS. That is it! I don’t want to load up on stocks when I am 99.9% sure the market heads lower… I just don’t know when exactly. The .1% of 100 that it doesn’t go lower, is the market stays sidelines like this, all the rate hikes are done, we go thru 2 more quarters of bad earnings. [No sell off]. Finally, the news starts turning better and we go up…
However, I don’t see that being likely, because bad news brings fear, fear is selling. So can the market rally or stay on the sidelines for 2 straight quarters of bad news??? 1st quarter April, 2nd Quarter July… if 1st quarter earnings are bad, the likelihood of 2nd is bad too. If first quarter starts turning flat, then the 2nd quarter has a possibility so pay attention!
Year over year sales, year over year earnings… Not just that a company beat analysts estimates! What is the health of the report?! How can anyone tell me NVDA report was good 30% decline in sales 50% decline in earnings, I don’t care what some dummy on TV says! Numbers do not have opinions!
5 Trade ideas: I am in no rush, to do anything. I may but no rush
ACI – I was in this grocer 19.25 to 19.60, 1000 shares, not exciting, but I parked my money a few days, and a grocer should be fine in this environment
AI – I was buying puts on this last time it was 27+, well it rallied from 20 to 25.50 yesterday, its on my radar for puts
MDGL – No sales, losses, this Bio tech, I have been stuck for months, April 21, 210 puts at 10, I am finally about even, It shot to 316! Stock is now 230. I will reset, I am sure there is some value as a large Pharma may buy, but 200, maybe?
PACW FRC WAL ZION banks – I may try PACW watching them fall on DB news. Credit swaps, which is insurance in case a bank fails have shot thru the roof on DB, meaning people are unsure if DB will be in business, shaking the whole industry
UBER – I last sold this a few weeks ago around 33-34. They had tremendous earnings and 50% growth on top of a more than 50 cent beat surprise profit. [GME 2% sales decline and 29 cent beat] just so you see. I was stuck in UBER shares about a year before I started to make money again
The contents of this post are for information and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. ... By choosing to make a trade you are responsible for your own actions. Please do some due diligence. These are trades I am making and you can follow along. If you make a winning trade, I do not even expect a bravo or thanks but that’s fine, if you lose on a trade the same difference.. I do not even expect an upvote or reward… The Elite team is aware of the risks and volatility in the market.
Good luck everyone let’s make money. Share trades, ideas here during trading hours. Our main goal here is to make money so I hope we can help eachother. I will be in and out of here as well.
submitted by UltimateTraders to UltimateTraders [link] [comments]


2023.03.24 06:29 gbchaosmaster I made a website to help make EV training brainless. Check it out!

Hi guys!
The past few months I've been working on a project that strives to make EV training a breeze. I've finally gotten it to the point where I'm not completely embarrassed to show it to people, and I'd love to hear some feedback! I've built several teams with it so far, each time going back and adding things that I found myself missing.
As it stands now, you can find/build a team, put a PokéPaste into the website, and it will create the "trainees" for you, with goals set for their EVs. There is a search function at the bottom of the page with filters and shit to determine which wild Pokémon you will need to train on, and as you defeat wild Pokémon you can click on them to record their EV yields across your team. You will get notifications which prevent you from overshooting any of your goals, so all you need to focus on is defeating the right Pokémon and remembering to click the button. See the landing page (linked below) for a little demo with screenshots, and make an account to try it yourself! It's free and I don't store or sell any of your data. A Google account is required for authentication but you may change which email the website saves when you pick your username. You may play with the yield search without logging in here.
Power items/macho brace/Pokérus are supported, generations 3-9 and their varying behaviors are supported, and I have worked hard to remain faithful to the actual behavior of the games (even booting up some emulators and using PKHeX to make sure I was applying edge case EVs in the correct order). If anybody can find any mistakes or discrepancies, I take this seriously and will correct it immediately.
This project is still in its early phases so I'm sure there are devices where things don't quite line up. I've spent time ensuring that the website has a good mobile experience, but I definitely need to spend a bit more. Specifically I'd like to fit more information towards the top of the screen, so that you don't have to scroll past 6 stat charts to get to the search bar. Anyway, bug reports and suggestions are welcome. I test for mobile on a Pixel so I'd especially love to know how Safari for iOS breaks my site.
Link: https://www.pokelog.net/
Source code/bug tracker: https://github.com/vinnydiehl/pokelog
submitted by gbchaosmaster to pokemon [link] [comments]


2023.03.23 13:23 upbstock whats happening

S&P 500 futures are 0.6% above fair value; the Nasdaq 100 futures are 0.4% above fair value; and the DJIA futures are 0.6% above fair value Key factors driving the futures market: Rebound from yesterday's sharp declines Continuing to digest Fed rate hike and Powell commentary Mega cap gains boosting broader market The Swiss National Bank announced a 50-bps rate hike to 1.50%, as expected, and said the country's bank crisis over Norges Bank raised its rate by 25 bps to 3.00%. The Bank of England announced a 25 basis points rate hike at 8:00 a.m. ET following the U.K.'s hotter than expected February Consumer Price Index earlier this week Hong Kong Monetary Authority followed the Fed's 25 bps rate hike with a 25 bps increase of its own, pushing the rate up to 5.25% Coinbase Global (COIN) receives a "Wells Notice" from the SEC stating recommending enforcement action alleging violations of federal securities laws Ford Motor (F) said it expected to lose about $3 billion on its EV business this year Brokerage research calls of note: Upgrades: ACCD, COLD, MT, BRBR, ORIC, REG, INZY, MRO, PXD Downgrades: AMWL, BXP, CHWY, COIN, MTB, NCNO, OVV, IOT, SLG WTI crude futures -0.6% to $70.49/bbl; nat gas futures +2.3% to $2.36/mmbtu; copper futures +0.2% to $4.05/lb. 2-yr note yield unchanged at 3.97% and 10-yr note yield -2 bp to 3.48% The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.1% to 102.28 Today's economic data: Weekly initial and continuing jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET; Q4 Current Account Balance at 8:30 a.m. ET; February New Home Sales at 10:00 a.m. ET; weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories at 10:30 a.m. ET
submitted by upbstock to Optionmillionaires [link] [comments]


2023.03.21 15:44 Vegetable-Cobbler734 How should Tesla break through the demand crisis?

How should Tesla break through the demand crisis?

https://preview.redd.it/tf3ouuaat3pa1.png?width=741&format=png&auto=webp&s=73d8cf224da660b542afedf484c56bdf8fc8a0f9
For Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shareholders who have never experienced a severe sales decline, what would happen to the stock price if there were a significant earnings and sales decline during a deep or prolonged recession?

The only "stress test" the electric car leader has experienced in the overall economy was the epidemic shutdown in 2020, when it sold essentially 80% of its electric cars in the U.S. and Europe.
The good news is that Tesla is now making and selling cars profitably, and its other business inventions may help sustain its overall performance better than traditional old-school automakers.
Moreover, the accumulation trend in Tesla stock during 2023 is rather unusual. Rational or not, investor interest in the stock may not reverse significantly in the near term.
Last fall, analysts were quite pessimistic about Tesla's $300 per share valuation due to concerns about stiff competition, but when the quote approached analysts' valuation target of $100 for 2022, analysts upgraded their rating to hold in late December.

01 Overview


A quick look back at the history of automakers during the recession shows that stocks in the auto industry at various trading times were down over 90% of the time from the official start of the U.S. GDP contraction to its end.

Here are the longest continuously traded charts for the auto manufacturing industry found on YCharts, shaded by recession.

Stock price change charts for Ford Motor Company (F), Toyota Motor Corporation (TM), Nissan Motor Company (OTCPK:NSANY), Honda Motor Company (HMC) and Volkswagen AG (OTCPK:VWAGY).
https://preview.redd.it/cmmznmmht3pa1.png?width=635&format=png&auto=webp&s=2610d724da5bc381ad8949e552597318c5070ac3
https://preview.redd.it/1oe7ecwht3pa1.png?width=635&format=png&auto=webp&s=c022761040f14e767e5c87794f128d00285a7dcd
When consumebusiness demand for automobiles falls sharply, sales, earnings and cash flows for more cyclical automakers plummet. Analysts expect the same scenario to occur in 2023 when the economy contracts.

The world's largest automaker already lagged the popular U.S. market index, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), in March. And, Tesla is suffering the same pain as other companies.
Analysts have expanded the list of peers to include Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (OTCPK:BMWYY), Mercedes-Benz (OTCPK:MBGYY), BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY), General Motors and Stellantis N.V.
https://preview.redd.it/2jmbjz1lt3pa1.png?width=635&format=png&auto=webp&s=1eaf0304be5364af4801277e9b1451095c4c6031
For Tesla in particular, Wall Street analysts' earnings estimates have fallen slightly over the past six months, something that hasn't been seen since 2019. Increasing competition for electric vehicles is one reason.
If we experience a severe recession, revenues will almost certainly plummet.

Arguably, the inflated demand for Teslas since 2019 has been supported by stock market, real estate and cryptocurrency gains that are now disappearing.

A deep economic contraction means that money to buy high-priced cars will be cut dramatically. That's why demand for cars has plummeted.
In addition, CEO Elon Musk's risky move to buy Twitter has undermined some of the demand interest from liberals and progressives in the U.S. and Europe, who were previously the main group buying Twitter.

Tesla's last $50 drop at the end of 2022 was widely blamed in the mainstream media for fears that the Twitter fiasco would affect future sales.
https://preview.redd.it/xqw2vuoot3pa1.png?width=635&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f45620d3957d3cf6d11501ca90126ba4211faa9
One of the uncertainties in the U.S. recession is that Tesla didn't go public until the summer of 2010, when it was more of a startup.

We have no experience with how its stock, sales and earnings would react in a "severe" recession scenario. Margins will be near industry-leading levels by early 2023.

So even a small contraction in margins, combined with lower-than-expected sales, could really erode cash flow and earnings. If earnings per share are around $2 or $3 this year, the stock price will almost certainly suffer.

The company already cut prices sharply in January and a few weeks ago this year to remain competitive with new entrants.

There is no doubt that margins on auto sales and per-vehicle profitability will fall further in the coming years as inflationary pressures on parts and wages continue to rise at the other end of the spread equation.
https://preview.redd.it/w8mrlr7ut3pa1.png?width=635&format=png&auto=webp&s=78cf3c6a4b5f7e31adeb2f68bde7b5077a471862
02 2023 Technical Strength


Although Tesla's price is down 40% since September, the chart shows that all the buying has been happening since the $100 level in January.

A better-than-expected earnings report, along with positive guidance for 2023, led to a significant increase in the price gap at the open on January 26.

Analysts have drawn a green line on the daily chart below as possible support for the gap fill.
In assessing the safety of this investment, it is clear that in the bullish column, the accumulation/distribution line and the flat measured uptrend (below) have been absolutely fantastic since the price reversal in January.

The outstanding question is whether the aggressive buying behavior remained during the U.S. recession and whether the results for the second half of 2023 may be worse than expected?
https://preview.redd.it/sl8gwsavt3pa1.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d9c500839238c2f6acfd1fc1556e6f336ad89af
03 Overvaluation data


Tesla's overvaluation remains the biggest factor weighing on the stock price. Without wanting to rehash how expensive the stock is today, here's a broad summary to ponder.

When measured against 6% CPI inflation or 6x the industry average median, the 34x of EV to past EBITDA is truly incredible (especially if growth stalls).

If there is any good news, it is that Tesla's earnings have improved significantly as the stock price has fallen rapidly, pulling this important ratio down from around 100x in early 2022.
https://preview.redd.it/yalgks9yt3pa1.png?width=635&format=png&auto=webp&s=c1489bbca2234e430a60b49ac7f5de383d268685
Tesla's operating P/E ratio is the highest among its major peers, so the stock is most at risk of falling if a U.S. recession affects performance and expectations.
https://preview.redd.it/zuchgc92u3pa1.png?width=635&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8890352bb60a8b3f5a5749724bb02510f152cc5
In addition, there is debate as to whether Tesla's stock market capitalization is really equal to the rest of the world's auto manufacturing industry combined.

Textbook economics suggests that Tesla's profit margins will decline significantly as competition in underlying prices and product values intensifies.
https://preview.redd.it/y81kpt35u3pa1.png?width=635&format=png&auto=webp&s=8025d96a8c82b73807b51e3f89e490bbd87571ab
04 Conclusion


March 2023 has seen incredible weakness in small cap stocks, banks/financials, deep cyclicals, airlines, steelmakers, and even major auto stocks, a sign of past recessions.

What if Tesla's car sales soon fall sharply from current expectations? Analysts doubt that the stock price will rise sharply in the face of such pessimistic news.
Yes, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has reached a 40-year high since last November, a clear sign of an impending recession.

Historically, it can take 6-12 months for the severe phase of a recession to occur, which means that U.S. economic growth could be quite negative in the summer and fall.
As a result, here are analysts' predictions for Tesla's price action over the remainder of 2023 From an analyst's perspective, the sharp rise from the technical charts of slightly above $100 in early January is in urgent need of at least a retest.

Analysts expect the $140 spread to be filled as a recession in auto demand becomes the main topic of conversation in the industry over the summer.
The dollar could then rally to $175-$200 under another round of massive easing (including trillions of dollars of new quantitative easing) by the Federal Reserve to prevent the U.S. economy from falling into depression and massive debt/loan defaults.

Analysts estimate a year-end offer around $180, roughly the same price as today. Basically, the analysts' forecast for December 2023 is for 3% annual inflation and short-term interest rates, a forward P/E ratio of 35x and long-term growth of 20% (lower than current Wall Street forecasts).

Therefore, analysts' ratings on the stock's 12-month outlook remain unchanged.
Of course, if a severe recession leaves Tesla with flat earnings or a negative outcome, the stock could still fall below $100.

That's the worst-case scenario at this point. The best-case scenario is a mild recession with Tesla's sales growth steady and well above average.
submitted by Vegetable-Cobbler734 to Burystocks [link] [comments]